Re:Only have a 5 percent chance of avoiding ‘dangerous’ glob...
by erikpukinskis on Monday July 31, 2017 @11:07PM
(#14897623)
> We've had a period of cooling that none of their models have predicted
I'm not sure what you're referring to. I did a search for some citations, and I found this:
"The observed slow-down in the global-mean surface temperature (GST) warming from 1998 to 2012 has been called a “warming hiatus.” Certain climate models, operating under experiments which simulate warming by increasing radiative forcing, have been shown to reproduce periods which resemble the observed hiatus."
So, that's describing a slowing down of the warming... which is still not cooling, it's just warming slower. And it was predicted by many models.
Furthermore, a climate model doesn't need to reproduce every bump and dip to be credible. It just has to give a range within future predictions can be judged. And there are lots of models that have predicted events which were later observed and point at multiple degrees of warming in the future.
If you can point to a specific observation, I'd be very curious to look at the models, though, and see if you're correct that the observation is outside the predicted range of the model.
As for skeptics, I think skepticism is great. I'm skeptical of you. This web site is skeptical of you and it's called skeptical science: https://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm Science is, for the most part, incredibly skeptical of past models. That's how we've gotten such good models.
I'm not sure what you're referring to. I did a search for some citations, and I found this:
"The observed slow-down in the global-mean surface temperature (GST) warming from 1998 to 2012 has been called a “warming hiatus.” Certain climate models, operating under experiments which simulate warming by increasing radiative forcing, have been shown to reproduce periods which resemble the observed hiatus."
- https://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijas/2016/9657659/
So, that's describing a slowing down of the warming... which is still not cooling, it's just warming slower. And it was predicted by many models.
Furthermore, a climate model doesn't need to reproduce every bump and dip to be credible. It just has to give a range within future predictions can be judged. And there are lots of models that have predicted events which were later observed and point at multiple degrees of warming in the future.
If you can point to a specific observation, I'd be very curious to look at the models, though, and see if you're correct that the observation is outside the predicted range of the model.
As for skeptics, I think skepticism is great. I'm skeptical of you. This web site is skeptical of you and it's called skeptical science: https://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm Science is, for the most part, incredibly skeptical of past models. That's how we've gotten such good models.