Re:Justin Trudeau – Profile of an interesting man
by bryanlarsen on Wednesday July 26, 2017 @02:51PM
(#14859026)
In my opinion, that decision is going to cost him the next election, so I find it both baffling and frustrating.
Despite his unpopularity Harper still received 32% of the vote. So I think that can be considered the floor for right wing party support in Canada. It's highly likely that Scheer will receive > 32% of the vote. He probably won't receive more than ~40% of the vote, but whatever he gets, it'll probably be enough to win given 3 party first past the post. (4 parties including the Bloc).
So then the Liberals, NDP & Bloc will split the remaining 60 - 65%. Under first past the post, those votes get split and the Tories take a bunch of those seats. If Trudeau had gotten his desired reform of ranked ballots then most of that would probably accrue to the Liberals and his majority would continue until he made a serious misstep.
But instead if the reform was to mixed member proportional as it appears most vote reformers want then alternative parties would get more of those seats. So the Liberal majority would be unlikely to repeat. However his chances of being able to lead a minority government in that situation seem fairly good.
So even though MMP benefits the NDP & Greens much more than it benefits the Liberals Trudeau should have thrown his weight behind it. I hope he enjoys his position on the opposition benches come 2020 and I hope Scheer is a competent leader because he's going to be our next Prime Minister.
Despite his unpopularity Harper still received 32% of the vote. So I think that can be considered the floor for right wing party support in Canada. It's highly likely that Scheer will receive > 32% of the vote. He probably won't receive more than ~40% of the vote, but whatever he gets, it'll probably be enough to win given 3 party first past the post. (4 parties including the Bloc).
So then the Liberals, NDP & Bloc will split the remaining 60 - 65%. Under first past the post, those votes get split and the Tories take a bunch of those seats. If Trudeau had gotten his desired reform of ranked ballots then most of that would probably accrue to the Liberals and his majority would continue until he made a serious misstep.
But instead if the reform was to mixed member proportional as it appears most vote reformers want then alternative parties would get more of those seats. So the Liberal majority would be unlikely to repeat. However his chances of being able to lead a minority government in that situation seem fairly good.
So even though MMP benefits the NDP & Greens much more than it benefits the Liberals Trudeau should have thrown his weight behind it. I hope he enjoys his position on the opposition benches come 2020 and I hope Scheer is a competent leader because he's going to be our next Prime Minister.