The argument for reverting the DAO was that 1) Ethereum was very new and there was still a lot of confusion about good community practice, 2) It would still serve as a cautionary tale even with the reversal, since it was the first big mistake, 3) A large percentage of all Ethereum early adopters were invested in it, so letting the money go would have a bad effect on adoption, 4) Because Ethereum was so new at the time, the DAO represented a large percentage of all outstanding Ethers.
We just won't see another theft with all of those attributes in place. The community is diversified and better educated.
> Are we going to end up with 50 forks
Yes and no.
Yes, in the sense of yes, there will literally be 50 forks. But that's the point of cryptocurrencies... anyone can fork them and run things their own way.
No in the sense that No, we won't have Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, and 48 other equally valid forks.
Forks have to be based on ideas if they are to last. Ethereum is based on the idea that it's a startup platform and there's going to be a little jostling around as it gets going, but that in the long term interventions will only be made when there are clear existential threats to the network.
Ethereum Classic is based on the idea that you never fudge the blockchain ever. What's written is written and what's done is done.
For there to be a third big chain, there needs to be a third big idea. What's that idea? Reverse all clear instances of fraud or theft?
OK, cool. That's a third chain. They'll fork off ETH and reverse this transaction. Maybe ETH keeps it, because it falls under "buyer beware" for them.
Now we've got three forks. One currency where nothing ever changes, one where only existential threats are dealt with, and one where theft and fraud is actively policed with a big beurocrasy.
Again: This is the point of cryptocurrency! You can set up different regimes with different ideas, and they will work differently.
> and then how does that even work - do then people accepting these crypto-currencies need to decide which forks they're going to accept from?
Yep. Just like how you can accept Dollars, Euros, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, you can also accept Ethereum Classic, and any other fork you like. It's all just currencies. They'll all be tracked on the exchanges and talked about endlessly on online forums.
The difference is, instead of being tied to the political system within a geographic area, they're tied to an idea.
What happens if a crypto-asset becomes a legitimate currency and then an bad actor wants control and takes it using military-level force - or manipulation like blackmail, death threats of you or family members, etc?
The Russian government being strongly against anti-crypto-currencies and then recently Ethereum being endorsed by Putin himself by a physical visit with Vitalik. Does that not ring warning bells to others?
If someone evil - for a lack of better word - pumps $1 billion into the ecosystem early on, how much could they turn that into? What if then they use other $1 billion to lobby and pay off politicians, or get people into power who are "strong believers" in the crypto-assets, to then intertwine societies currencies with crypto-currencies. There is a lot of incentives for them to do this, and I'm not the only one aware of this issue. Even just pumping more $ billions into the ecosystem will create stronger believers - because their "$100 is now worth $70 million."
This current investment-like incentive for creating a new currency is bad for society, the wealth transfer as it currently would happen needs to be worked out of a crypto-asset based currency.