Re:153k Ether Stolen in Parity Multi-Sig Attack
by vasilipupkin on Wednesday July 19, 2017 @11:07PM
(#14809787)
It's only a bubble if you can identify it ahead of time.
Stating that something became much more valuable over a short period of time doesn't mean you know how to identify bubbles. Bitcoin is 70-80 times more valuable now than when it was at 32, and had you bought it then you would be up a lot. So, to say crypto is in a bubble today is the same thing as to predict that in a few years it will be worth less than today. Do you know that definitively ? I don't
Re:153k Ether Stolen in Parity Multi-Sig Attack
by vasilipupkin on Thursday July 20, 2017 @08:00AM
(#14811675)
Downvoters, since you know how to indentify bubbles, I'm assuming you shorted ethereum on margin on GDAX when it hit 400 and made a ton? No? If not, why not, if you knew definitely it was a bubble ?
Re:153k Ether Stolen in Parity Multi-Sig Attack
by Taek on Thursday July 20, 2017 @11:21AM
(#14813246)
Because it's very hard to figure out where the top of a bubble is, and if you short a bubble asset too long before the peak, you go broke, even if you are correct.
Don't short hopium.
Re:153k Ether Stolen in Parity Multi-Sig Attack
by vasilipupkin on Thursday July 20, 2017 @01:26PM
(#14814526)
Well, now we are talking semantics. You don't get to claim you are correct if your forecast turns out to be wrong. So, if you identify a bubble, part of the requirement to say that you succeeded is that you can identify the top. Otherwise, your "knowledge" that it's a bubble is useless
Re:153k Ether Stolen in Parity Multi-Sig Attack
by MockObject on Thursday July 20, 2017 @03:27PM
(#14815552)
I think people agree that a price rise was a bubble after it pops, and I don't believe that prediction is a necessary condition.
Re:153k Ether Stolen in Parity Multi-Sig Attack
by vasilipupkin on Friday July 21, 2017 @08:38AM
(#14819897)
It is, otherwise how do you distinguish a bubble from a rise justified by fundamentals ?
Though crypto has risen past the high point of each of these bubbles, each price point can be definitively classified as a bubble in it's own time, and was followed by a crash that wiped out >70% of the market cap over the coming months/years.
Though it did recover, that doesn't mean it wasn't a bubble.
I believe cryptocurrency is going to be bigger than e-commerce is today. But it's not there yet, and it shouldn't be valued as though it has changed the world. It hasn't yet, and it's still a few years away at least from doing so.