No one is claiming it's purely lottery winning simply that even among the very talented people there are many failures so the only thing that really stand out is the luck and the timing aspects. Talent is mostly a hygiene factor.

It's the "only" part that keeps tripping me up. Very talented people come out with products that don't fit the market demand properly and therefore don't succeed. That isn't luck. I'm not saying that is the "only" reason for failure but just a quick hole in your logic here so there are probably many more.

There are no holes in my logic. You are basically supporting my point. If very talented people come out with failures what separate those who are successful? And we are back to luck and timing. Talent is important but it's not defining for being successful.