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A comment on Two days in an underwater cave running out of oxygen. Parent comment

Re:Two days in an underwater cave running out of oxygen by idlewords on Monday July 17, 2017 @06:12PM (#14792692)
A similar trough exists in general aviation—accident rates are markedly higher for somewhat experienced pilots than for beginners. The consensus among pilots seems to be that you are most dangerous between the time you think you know what you're doing, and the time you survive your first big scare.

There's probably a good lesson here for computer programmers...

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Re:Two days in an underwater cave running out of oxygen by Procrastes on Monday July 17, 2017 @06:32PM (#14792784)
> There's probably a good lesson here for computer programmers...

That sounds like a great Ask HN topic[1].

1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14792764

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Re:Two days in an underwater cave running out of oxygen by matt4077 on Monday July 17, 2017 @06:40PM (#14792846)
I seem to remember hearing the same about drivers. Might have been for my country (Germany) specifically, where the minimum age for a license 18. If you get your license at 16, you're still in the upwards swing on risk-taking behaviour, which might drown out all other statistical signals.
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Re:Two days in an underwater cave running out of oxygen by dx034 on Tuesday July 18, 2017 @03:22AM (#14794838)
Yes, the most dangerous drivers tend not to be the ones who just got their license, as they usually still adapt and don't drive too fast. It becomes dangerous after a few months or 1-2 years when a driver feels confident enough even though he still has very little experience.
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Re:Two days in an underwater cave running out of oxygen by mveety on Monday July 17, 2017 @08:34PM (#14793464)
I disagree here. You're dangerous until you know you know what you're doing. Having a bad scare might make you not repeat that situation, but you're still just as dumb after it as you were before (well, at least that's been true for me).
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Re:Two days in an underwater cave running out of oxygen by idlewords on Tuesday July 18, 2017 @12:12AM (#14794218)
You can disagree, but I'm talking about an objective phenomenon.

https://www.amazon.com/Killing-Zone-Second-How-Pilots/dp/007...

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Re:Two days in an underwater cave running out of oxygen by dx034 on Tuesday July 18, 2017 @03:23AM (#14794840)
> when they leave their instructors behind and fly as pilot in command for the first time

This is very different. If an instructor is present the danger is clearly lower. The book deals with the phase where pilots first fly alone without external help.

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Re:Two days in an underwater cave running out of oxygen by idlewords on Tuesday July 18, 2017 @09:39AM (#14796395)
Read the book and you'll see that the spike comes after the first few dozen flights without an instructor present (from 100 to 350 hours of flight time). I believe you're quoting the blurb, which doesn't reflect what's actually in the book.
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