Re:Machine Learning Crash Course: The Bias-Variance Dilemma
by nshepperd on Monday July 17, 2017 @02:10PM
(#14790959)
Not extrapolating isn't really an option in cases like this. You have to give some prediction for earthquakes of magnitude 9. Ultimately you must make a decision on whether to design for such an event.
But a sensible thing to do would be to draw many samples from the posterior distribution, instead of just using the maximum likelyhood estimate. That way the prediction accurately represents the uncertainty resulting from not having any data above magnitude 8 as well as, perhaps, your background knowledge that earthquakes of magnitude 15 never happen.
But a sensible thing to do would be to draw many samples from the posterior distribution, instead of just using the maximum likelyhood estimate. That way the prediction accurately represents the uncertainty resulting from not having any data above magnitude 8 as well as, perhaps, your background knowledge that earthquakes of magnitude 15 never happen.