Look at the graph of Chinese Urban population and Chinese GDP. These graphs are in lock-step. Now look at the graphs of fully developed countries and extrapolate. The rural population is the economic fuel. So long as its there there will not be an economic downturn. There may be slow downs and specific cases of mismanagement, but never a true negative growth rate recession. IMO anyone predicting any change in the Chinese status quo before the mid 2030's is full of it.