Re:Ask HN: How soon will electric cars replace gasoline cars?
by Broken_Hippo on Friday June 30, 2017 @03:55AM
(#14669224)
I think the best you can do with facts is to simply watch what is currently happening and compare it to what has happened in the past few years. Any prediction is going to be theory, albeit educated theory from some.
Mostly because there are sooo many factors at play and a lot of it is difficult to predict. Infrastructure needs built and it is possible subsidies of different sorts are needed. We still need a robust used electric car market, and it simply hasn't been long enough. We probably also need an easy way to upgrade gasoline cars to electric (I'd look to something that is adapatable across a few sizes/styles of cars or something relying on 3d printing).
That said, I do think the folks reporting replacement by 2018 or 2020 are a bit too hopeful. 1-3 years is all they are giving, and I highly doubt this turnout. Even where I am - electric cars are quite popular in Norway. 2032 seems more likely, especially if you limit the query to new cars being produced or make sure to have enough monetary intervention so that everyone can afford them.
Mostly because there are sooo many factors at play and a lot of it is difficult to predict. Infrastructure needs built and it is possible subsidies of different sorts are needed. We still need a robust used electric car market, and it simply hasn't been long enough. We probably also need an easy way to upgrade gasoline cars to electric (I'd look to something that is adapatable across a few sizes/styles of cars or something relying on 3d printing).
That said, I do think the folks reporting replacement by 2018 or 2020 are a bit too hopeful. 1-3 years is all they are giving, and I highly doubt this turnout. Even where I am - electric cars are quite popular in Norway. 2032 seems more likely, especially if you limit the query to new cars being produced or make sure to have enough monetary intervention so that everyone can afford them.