frequently the private prison contract contains minimum occupancy guarantees (like 80-100%). Thus government has to either send people to prison no matter what or to face the politically tricky situation when taxpayers' money would be openly wasted on non-occupied "beds".

What could possibly go wrong, with rules like this? /s

> Any connection there or am I blowing things out of proportion?

This police and prison guards' unions are why California had the "three strikes" law in the first place. So yes, there is a direct connection.

I believe that that is the status quo, or something similar. But I read recently about a different model where prisons get bonuses for reducing recidivism; I can't remember where it is being set up, and don't exactly have faith in private run things like this, but it's a step in the right direction.

You're right. And if anything, you're understating the conflict of interest: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kids_for_cash_scandal