The second part of the nya has a hand waving requirement of 80,000 or so nodes uninstalling their existing node client software and installing a new unreviewed and untested node client three months after the segregated witness component is activated. I don't even know how that would be possible even if it was a change that everyone wanted, which they don't.

Reckon the first component is going to happen but there is very little chance of the hard-fork part.