My thoughts exactly. Elon Musk is not known for vaporware or BSing. If he says something is doable, there's a good reason for it. Musk has a combination of vision, an understanding of physics, and execution ability unmatched by any other person (in my opinion). To say that he has painted himself in a corner is highly misinformed.

>Elon Musk is not known for vaporware or BSing...

Hyperloop though..

I mean, I think bullshit can be sold to even 'techies' aka HN crowd, if it is wrapped just the right way...

That is neither vaporware nor BSing because Musk never suggested he was going to build the Hyperloop. He explicitly said the opposite, that it was an idea he thought was neat and he hoped somebody else would work on it.

Huh? Musk gave away the idea, never said he was himself going to do it.

But in spite of that, technically, Musk has already built a subscale Hyperloop nearly a mile long at the SpaceX campus in Hawthorne including an electric sled used for student competitions: (epilepsy warning) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moeI8DxQR5Q

He doesn't have any educational background in AI or it's underpinnings. Running open AI doesn't instantly make him an expert. The above comment is from an expert with experience in the self driving space.

And people from NASA and the CNES said space x was moot.

Can we just let the man try without being annoying the whole way ?

Or do something that helps ?

Or do something at all to understand that it's hard enough and that you really don't need a thousand voices enumerating all the reasons you might fail ?

I think it helps to give constructive criticism.

Musk is adamant that lidar isn't necessary. Many disagree and are voicing their opinions on that.

I also think his view that strong ai is around the corner is detrimental to the industry. He is overhyping things and potentially creating an expectation whose investments reality won't support.

So, when I spend time pointing out he is not an expert in the ai space, it is to soften his outlandish predictions in the space, and help bring a more realistic perspective on who is talking and who knows what they're talking about.

I think Musk will contribute something to the self driving and AI space, just not in the way he claims.

This is not formulated as constructive criticism. This is formulated as prophecies. "It will fail because...". "It can't work because...". Or formulated in the form of "I know better".

A constructive criticism would weight pros and cons, explain POV without condamnation and not make grandiose pronostics.

Odd that you would put quotes around things you made up and neither I nor the first comment in this comment-chain said.

Animats gave plenty of detailed constructive criticism, as did I. Neither comment could be simplified as you allege without leaving out important context.

his educational background also didn't include rocket science but yet spaceX has succeeded.

If you'd like to put money where your mouth is, I'd happily do a wager with you. Tesla will be the first to have a fully autonomous vehicle - care to bet against that?

> Tesla will be the first to have a fully autonomous vehicle - care to bet against that?

Yes, I would. Google is way ahead in the tech. Nevermind that they don't have a product. If we're talking strictly about the tech, Tesla is and always has been far behind

$1,000 wager?

Eh, if I knew you in person I would, but this is a loosely defined term and will likely occur iteratively over the years. Also I'd only take the bet while Musk is still in charge and while he is anti-lidar.

Feel free to message me if your side of the bet comes true. But, I really doubt it will. If Waymo forms a partnership with any major manufacturer they'll pretty much have it.

I made the same type of wagers with Thunderf00t with regards to SpaceX. No taker!