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Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by philipov on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @02:26PM (#14547272)
I think this only sounds like a paradox if it is phrased poorly. The accurate way to state it is "The probability of randomly picking a specific number is 0" and that sounds reasonable. The probability of successfully picking any number is 1.
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by cdavid on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @02:30PM (#14547310)
That's a different statement: OP is alluding to the fact the measure of Q is 0 when using the "standard" sigma algebra on the real line, while you are saying that the measure of a number of 0.

[edit] strictly speaking, you would restrict yourself to a bounded interval, e.g. if you pick a random number from a uniform distribution on [0, 1], the probability that this number is rational is 0.

Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by philipov on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @02:36PM (#14547361)
oh, yeah, but that's because although Q is dense, it is not a dense subset of R and locally that's equivalent to saying a single point is not dense in R
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by cdavid on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @03:51PM (#14548022)
no, it is not. The OP statement is about the probability of the event "{X in Q}" (equal to 0), with X a random variable uniformly distributed on a bounded interval. That even contains many points (infinitely many actually), but has a probability 0.

You are talking about the probability of a single point event, which is also always 0 on that same sigma algebra.

The OP point is not completely trivial because the event contains an infinite (but countably) number of elements. It is fairly easy to understand though since by its very definition, the P[{X in Q}] = sum P[{x}] taken over every rational number (since Q is countable), and each P[{x}] is 0.

A deeper statement is that there exists uncountable sets of probability 0.

Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by Houshalter on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @03:03PM (#14547598)
The paradox is that, after picking a random number, you have just done a thing which has probability zero. Doing a thing that has zero probability shouldn't be possible. Ever.
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by rocqua on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @05:19PM (#14548741)
You can't pick a random real number between 0 and 1. Heck, almost all reals between 0 and 1 can't ever be constructed let alone picked.

The here is the non-constructive nature of the real numbers. That is not to say the reals are useless, but they are not much more than a formalism. It's rather useful though because it's hard to get numbers like pi or e. Its really nice that any real interval is compact, but that too is hard to replicate.

Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by bjl on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @05:44PM (#14548925)
You can certainly pick a random real number from the unit interval.
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by waqf on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @06:28PM (#14549204)
Really? Go on, then, pick one and tell us what it is (or at least tell us what your procedure was).
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by Houshalter on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @08:39PM (#14549935)
One example in a finite space and time setting would be selecting a random point on the ground. Say by dropping a ball there or something. The exact coordinates it lands is a random real number. But the probability that it landed on those exact coordinates is exactly 0, hence a paradox.
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by marcosdumay on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @03:38PM (#14547902)
Non-countable sets defy intuition on several ways. The silver lining is that we don't have any evidence a non-countable thing exist on the real world.

I don't think anybody even has a procedure for gathering that kind of evidence.

Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by dorgo on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @03:43PM (#14547944)
No. Rational number are countable, but have the same property of zero probability for an item in a uniform distribution.
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by pelario on Wednesday June 14, 2017 @07:12AM (#14551898)
Why the downvotes? I think he is correct; and if someone think he is not, please elaborate
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by marcosdumay on Wednesday June 14, 2017 @10:49AM (#14553130)
Yes, no reason for the downvotes.

Infinities are problematic too.

Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by pelario on Wednesday June 14, 2017 @07:08AM (#14551884)
It is possible! Actually I remember​ pointing out a similar concern in my probability class back in the day. The teacher's answer: that is precisely the difference between probablity and possibility :)
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by dorgo on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @03:41PM (#14547925)
I would argue that the distribution you used to pick a random number was not uniform. Not all the real number were equaliy likely to be picked by you. Hence the probability for some numbers was > 0.
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by oh_sigh on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @06:15PM (#14549137)
Is it probability actually zero, or just infinitely close to zero?
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by waqf on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @06:30PM (#14549221)
If it's a random real then the probability is zero. If it's an arbitrarily close approximation to a random real then the probability is arbitrarily close to zero.
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by oh_sigh on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @08:04PM (#14549760)
How can the sum of infinitely many zero probabilities be 1? I can understand how the sum of infinitely many infinitely close to zero values can be 1, but not infinitely many exactly zero values
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by Retra on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @08:16PM (#14549812)
There's no such thing as a "sum of infinitely many" anything. What we are talking about is the limit of an infinite series, which behaves nothing at all like a sum.
Re:Paradoxes of Probability and Other Statistical Strangeness by Retra on Tuesday June 13, 2017 @08:07PM (#14549774)
Those are the same thing. You're just calling them by different names.