This reminds me of Robin Hanson's criticism of medical spending - exercise and diet are much better predictors of health than money spent on healthcare, meaning that there's a large amount of waste in the system. I suspect something similar here, the amount of money people spend on education is uncorrelated from what they get out of it. The other factors, like whether you went to a top school and what you did in college dominate the ROI. There is a tendency to treat education as an insurance policy, where all you have to do is buy in, and you are somehow protected from falling through the cracks in society. It seems that college as an insurance policy has stopped working if it ever did work, and it exposes a fact that's somewhat uncomfortable, you can't just pay these colleges money to have your career set, you have to figure out what to do yourself.