https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807
With that said, the above is what the world's AI researchers think is possible hopefully within my lifetime using just applied AI without the notion of "common sense".
Common sense is AGI. That's not the goal anymore. The goal is to do things like self driving cars. Both Google and Tesla have placed vehicles on the road that have driven for literally millions of miles.
The idea is to build a bunch of classifiers and regression models and use them together in an ensemble to solve your problem. The same approach is being applied successfully to a lot of unrelated fields where deep learning is concerned.
Also, modern AI doesn't even pretend to be biological in nature, in fact we'll known researchers like Andrew Ng make a point in saying that they are only biologically inspires and that's where the commonalities end.
There are other models like HTM that are way more ambitious and want to come up with a single generalized scheme to solve a broad range of problems, AGI style. These guys think biology is important and are trying to emulate the neocortex. They ARE going for AGI, common sense, etc.
Replacing a human driver takes an AGI at least for the exceptional or new situations. It's why we're including it as a counter instead of supporting point.
I hate how everyone thinks they know enough to talk about AI because it's so buzzy/trendy right now.
Modern AI is not pretending to be AGI. No one is claiming to be going for AGI, and whatever successes we have been seeing lately have to do with applied AI in solving specific problems, not AGI.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_autonomous_cars
BTW did you even look at the survey? Because that's the opinion of actual AI researchers across the world.
This is easily Google able info, BTW, clearly your background is not AI.
Note: I'm all for getting data that shows the narrow AI's have been corrected to handle what I described.
Humans take 10-20 years of semi-supervised learning to acquire this combination of common sense, knowledge, and problem-solving. It also happens in stages where the infants or especially young children have brains in overdrive taking in everything followed by stages that are more selective about what they take in and solidify. Training AI's to be smart for real, common sense and all, might take over a decade of data for the first one unless this problem can be decomposed. Still will take years of similar experiences.