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A comment on China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says. Parent comment

Re:China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says by cm2187 on Thursday May 25, 2017 @03:34AM (#14415876)
It's funny because these massive debt accumulations invariably end up either in financial collapses or period of very high inflation, both of which can have dramatic impacts on a large part of the population (particularly savers and pensioners). But they are the most predictable thing in the world. Yet no one seems to be worried about them, whether in Europe or in the US.

When the collapse will happen, people will be outraged and will pretend like in Greece that they were betrayed by their politicians, lied to. But this accumulation of debt happens in plain sight, it is just that no one seems to care.

Hard to predict the timig, like it is hard to predict the timing of a market crash. I have heard people calling the end of the current economic cycle for the past 5 years. Some say Trump has delayed a correction that should have happened this year by 2-3 years (if his economic package goes through). Well it's the same with the accumulation of debt. You can live on the credit card as long as your creditors are not concerned about your credit. At one point the sentiment turns and your credit lines get cut. Then it is the end. Greece is there. Italy is close. France and Japan a little further. The US will get there eventually.

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Re:China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says by jdavis703 on Thursday May 25, 2017 @06:15AM (#14416364)
China is a bit more of a complex situation since they are a republic, the citizens have no direct say in government matters. Now of course the Chinese government knows they have to continue providing growth, otherwise citizens will question the system and revolution could happen.

But let's say a majority of voting eligible citizens decided their country needs to dial down debt-fueled growth? Well there's almost nothing they can do, even though popular opinion has changed.

In Greece, even with the fraud that went on voters still had to know bad financial choices were being made. Heck, I live in the U.S. and know when politicians are using financialeering to make the books balance better...

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Re:China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says by gunnyguy121 on Thursday May 25, 2017 @08:47AM (#14416942)
I think China may be more on the brink than people realize. Right now there are about 30 million men in China who can't get married,not wont, can't. There simply aren't enough women in China for the men to find a bride. That's 30 million men who may be left jobless, and without a relationship. That is a recipe for disaster, maybe even a revolution
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Re:China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says by justinhj on Thursday May 25, 2017 @09:04AM (#14417012)
If your figure is correct that's only 2% of the population.
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Re:China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says by D_Alex on Thursday May 25, 2017 @09:59AM (#14417323)
Unfortunately, these 30 million are "men of marriageable age" (the imbalance is due to the practice of aborting female foetuses during the "one child" policy). This would mean perhaps 15-20% of young men are doomed to bachelorhood... potentially a volatile situation!
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Re:China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says by MrBuddyCasino on Thursday May 25, 2017 @07:28AM (#14416636)
Germany cares, for historical reasons. We get yelled at a lot for that.
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Re:China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says by chadcmulligan on Thursday May 25, 2017 @08:03AM (#14416769)
So how does Germany manage to avoid the same situation?
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Re:China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says by ethbro on Thursday May 25, 2017 @10:03AM (#14417338)
By being politically dedicated to maintaining low levels of debt:GDP. It's easier when, as parent said, your voters remember what happens when things go really badly.
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Re:China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says by ryandamm on Thursday May 25, 2017 @01:10PM (#14418588)
But this is actually why the euro isn't an optimal currency area. Germany's low levels of debt:GDP are a result of explicit suppression of the household sector -- a deal struck by Merkels government with labor unions to restrain wage growth.

This kept German industry competitive, and enhanced exports. This overall made the euro stronger, but not as strong as the deutschmark would have been. Greece suffered from the other end: they became less competitive by being tethered to Germany's economy.

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Re:China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says by timthelion on Thursday May 25, 2017 @03:39AM (#14415894)
It is not true that the Greek crisis happened in plain sight. The government actually cooked the books in order to comply with European lending regulations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis#D...
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Re:China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says by woodandsteel on Thursday May 25, 2017 @08:57PM (#14421353)
I don't buy that excuse. Everyone knew the Greeks are very corrupt, and one feature of corrupt governments everywhere is they fake their economic numbers. So the lenders really should have looked deeper. They didn't because they knew the EU would bail them out.
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Re:China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says by timthelion on Tuesday May 30, 2017 @05:58PM (#14448884)
Some of the lenders actually helped them cook the books [1] . And I wasn't excusing the lenders, I was excusing the citizens. How are the citizens supposed to make informed decisions when they are getting fabricated numbers?

[1] https://www.thenation.com/article/goldmans-greek-gambit/

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