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Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by olavk on Saturday May 20, 2017 @11:31AM (#14382824)
There was/is nothing magic about epicycles. Epicycles was part of a model which described the movement of the planets. Now we have better and more precise model, but that does not mean epicycles was "magic".

There is nothing magic about the the word "dark matter" either. Yes indeed it describe a phenomen we don't understand, this does not mean it is magic.

Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by TillE on Saturday May 20, 2017 @11:34AM (#14382839)
Epicycles were wrong. They were an incorrect theory attempting to fit the math.
Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by yorwba on Saturday May 20, 2017 @12:09PM (#14383027)
Using epicycles just means to decompose the motion into its Fourier series. It may not be the most elegant description, but its not wrong per se, either.
Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by JadeNB on Saturday May 20, 2017 @07:56PM (#14385027)
> Using epicycles just means to decompose the motion into its Fourier series. It may not be the most elegant description, but its not wrong per se, either.

One issue here is that (as I understand the history) epicycles were not originally proposed in the context of "just add them until you've got something that looks right"; it was proposed that, occasionally, one needed to add one epicycle. After a while it was found that even this didn't work, and we needed sometimes to add another. I forget whether the theory collapsed before instances were found where we'd need a third.

This, I think, is 'wrong' in the sense of physics: if your model is constantly scrambling to catch up with newly acquired data, then it has no predictive, and hence little scientific, value. Further, the very ability of epicycles constantly to scramble to catch up—the ability of trigonometric polynomials to approximate continuous functions arbitrarily well over arbitrary bounded intervals, as you mention—is also a mark against them: a scientific theory that is so general that it could be tuned to predict anything can, in fact, for that reason actually predict nothing.

Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by olavk on Monday May 22, 2017 @02:41AM (#14391463)
Epicycles were added to make the model better fit the observations. There is nothing wrong or unscientific about this. It is just like new planets are added to the model of the solar system when new planets are observed.
Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by JadeNB on Monday May 22, 2017 @03:03AM (#14391546)
> There is nothing wrong or unscientific about this.

To be sure, there is nothing wrong with changing your model in response to data—what would be wrong would be the opposite. What I was calling 'wrong' was two things: (1) a model that can only be tuned post hoc to observations (that is, it's always being changed to fit them, and never predicting new ones); and (2) a model that is so flexible that it can be tuned to fit any observations (again, because it will never have the ability to predict future observations).

Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by olavk on Monday May 22, 2017 @07:44AM (#14392720)
The predictions by the system is the movements of the planets in the sky. The Ptolemaic system with epicycles actually did this pretty well, considering the available data. It is just that as better observations and better calculations became available, the model have to be more precise which required more epicycles.

I don't really get the thing about "too flexible". According to Wikipedia there is apparently some myths floating around regarding the science history of epicycles, but I assure there is nothing magical about them - at least they are not any more magical than Newtonian mechanics.

Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by JadeNB on Monday May 22, 2017 @08:24AM (#14392943)
> I don't really get the thing about "too flexible". According to Wikipedia there is apparently some myths floating around regarding the science history of epicycles, but I assure there is nothing magical about them - at least they are not any more magical than Newtonian mechanics.

I think we may be talking at cross purposes here, but I wanted to give it another shot. I do not think that there is anything magical about epicycles, and my objection to them is scientific; it has nothing to do with their history. My claim is that a scientific tool is valid science only to the extent that it has predictive power. If your model has so many parameters that, by setting them to appropriate values, you can fit any outcome, then (absent some other data telling you which values of the parameters to use) you'll never actually predict anything, only scramble setting them to 'post-dict' existing observations—which is, effectively, useless.

(For example, any finite collection of observations can be 'post-dicted' by a high-degree polynomial, and we can accommodate more observations simply by increasing the degree of the interpolating polynomial. This is not magical, and mathematically totally sound; but its very flexibility means that it is scientifically useless, because there's no reason to believe that our perfect fit to the `n` values we've seen so far says anything about the (`n + 1`)st value we'll see next.)

Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by olavk on Monday May 22, 2017 @01:31PM (#14395425)
OK how is it you think epicycles differ in this respect from say the keplerian model of the solar system? I struggle to understand what you think is "special" about epicycles. No model of the solar system will allow you to predict the movement of the planets if you don't enter the correct parameters, which you have to find through observation. Given the correct initial parameters, the ptolmaic system with epicycles will yield predictions about the movements of the planet, predictions you can verify or falsify through observation.
Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by JadeNB on Monday May 22, 2017 @08:59PM (#14398045)
> OK how is it you think epicycles differ in this respect from say the keplerian model of the solar system?

Just to be clear, I'm not in any way insulting the intelligence of those who proposed them. It was a clever mechanism for dealing with what seemed at the time to be a blemish on an otherwise beautiful theory, and the fact that it turned out to be (factually) wrong does not mean that it was wrong to propose and test it.

With that said, here's my stab at what I see as the difference. The Keplerian model predicts elliptical orbits. To be sure, one must do some tuning of parameters to find the semimajor and semiminor axes of these ellipses; there is no way for someone sitting in a windowless room, with access only to Kepler's laws, to predict exactly, say, the length of a Jovian year, or even the existence of Jupiter.

However, what is crucial is that that person sitting in a windowless room can say, definitively, that, if Jupiter has been observed in these five positions at these five times, then it will be in this position at this sixth time. If it's not there, then the Keplerian model is wrong; it has been falsified.

Now suppose instead that another person in another windowless room knows about, not just Kepler's laws, but also epicycles. Given the same five measurements, he or she can make a prediction (which won't require epicycles). This prediction might or might not agree with the sixth measurement, but, if it doesn't, then that's no problem; just add on an epicycle to account for that measurement. If the result of that correction doesn't agree with the seventh measurement, then just add another epicycle.

To me, these two systems are meaningfully different. It is not the reliance on parameters to which I object, but the extreme flexibility; a model that can literally never be falsified, because it can always be adjusted to match new observations, is worthless as a scientific model.

Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by olavk on Tuesday May 23, 2017 @02:04AM (#14399140)
That would be a valid criticism if epicycles were added to the model post-hoc to explain previous observations, and adding those epicycles to the model did not improve future predictions.

Is that really how you think epicycles were used?

Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by JadeNB on Tuesday May 23, 2017 @03:11AM (#14399421)
> Is that really how you think epicycles were used?

Yes. So, if that's not true, then you've been right all along, and my objection was mostly founded on a misunderstanding of the history. Do you have a reference I could read?

(I should say that, even if it's not actually how they were used, it's still how they could have been used, and I think that the spirit of my objection applies; but the actual practicalities of it would certainly be undermined by my historical misunderstanding.)

Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by olavk on Tuesday May 23, 2017 @05:28AM (#14399959)
In short: Before the Ptolemaic system, it was assumed the planets moved in circular orbits around the earth. The problem is, this did not explain the phenomenon of "retrograde motion", which is when a planet apparently slows down and moves backwards in its path over the sky, as observed from the earth. Ptolemaus added the epicycles which describes the planets as additionally moving in smaller orbits along the path - just as the moon moves in a smaller circle around the earth, which would result in retrograde motion if observed from the sun. In other words, the epicycles explained a phenomenon and allowed the model to better predict the future movements of the planets.

The thing is, this model is not wrong and makes reasonable correct predictions about the motion of the planets as observed from the earth. The Copernican model is just simpler because by describing the planets as orbiting the sun rather than the earth, you don't need as many epicycles in the model. The Tychonian model, by the way, solves the same issue by having the planets orbit the sun, but the sun oribiting the earth, thereby additionally solving the parallax problem which the Copernican model could not explain given the knowledge at the time. All three models needed additional epicycles, which Kepler simplified by describing the orbit as a elliptical.

You will note these models are actually equivalent in modern understanding, where neither the sun or the earth is at the center of the universe.

The current model of the solar system still have epicycles (eg. for moons), so if the presence of epicycles somehow turns a model into pseudoscience, then what?

Re:A Physicist Who Denies Dark Matter by douche on Saturday May 20, 2017 @07:51PM (#14385014)
This should not be downvoted