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Re:To Become a Better Investor, Think Like Darwin by valuearb on Thursday May 18, 2017 @07:55PM (#14372017)
I think this is silly gobbledygook. The author seems to argue that you pull out of stocks when expected volatility rises. Well expected volatility can be a trailing indicator. The market has low volatility because investors expect great times, yet it suddenly crashes and loses 20%, and volatility skyrockets because investors basically believe that patterns continue forever and expect the market to continue to fall.

So now you sell, at 20% below peak prices. Maybe prices continue to fall, maybe not, but it's unlikely expected volatility will fall until the market starts climbing again significantly, say 20%. So then you buy back in, well above the lows.

Essentially this seems like a sell low, buy high mechanism, sell on dips, and buy on spikes.

Value investing means you invest in only what you can reasonably estimate a value for. You buy when the price is substantially less than it's value. You sell when value and price are similar.

Selling a stock you though was worth $10 and bought at $7, because it goes to $6 doesn't make sense if you believe in your original valuation. Buying it back because it goes to $9 doesn't make sense either.

If you cannot confidently assess value, you shouldn't be doing anything but buying and holding index funds.

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