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Re:More Robots, Fewer Jobs: capital vs. labor in production by paulpauper on Monday May 08, 2017 @10:50AM (#14291954)
Detroit lost so many jobs, not because of robots, but due to the decline of the domestic auto manufacturing industry. The modern auto assembly line, which uses human-assisted robots, existed a couple decades before Detroit's precipitous decline. The Detroit riots during the 60's and 'capital flight' also didn't help. The argument of robots destroying jobs, imho, has a lot of holes ..the hysteria seems overblown http://greyenlightenment.com/why-robots-wont-take-all-the-jo... The printing press put scribes out of work, but then the entire publishing industry exploded.
Re:More Robots, Fewer Jobs: capital vs. labor in production by lurker10000 on Monday May 08, 2017 @11:19AM (#14292262)
Many people (including me) believe the problem isn't overblown. A common counterargument to your point is that humans have always had the ability to do work at higher abstraction levels than the machines replacing them. Scribes become unemployed but can retrain as typographers, press operators, digital layout artists and so on.

The problem comes when robots begin to perform these higher order tasks. What happens to individuals when they have no "higher" place to move into? What happens to society when automated replacement becomes commonplace?

Re:More Robots, Fewer Jobs: capital vs. labor in production by bduerst on Monday May 08, 2017 @12:52PM (#14293343)
Jobs are not zero sum - the demand for labor is a function of supply. People will begin to fill more niche and variable-demand jobs where capital investments don't make sense, i.e. a shift towards a consultant economy.

Keep in mind that the specifics of this is very hard to predict. A large number of the jobs we have today would have seemed absurd 20-40 years ago, but to us they feel like they were inevitable.

Re:More Robots, Fewer Jobs: capital vs. labor in production by petra on Monday May 08, 2017 @01:20PM (#14293607)
What popular jobs.that we have today would seem absurd 20-40 ago ,for someone.with an eye into.the future , say a science fiction writer?
Re:More Robots, Fewer Jobs: capital vs. labor in production by paulpauper on Monday May 08, 2017 @03:02PM (#14294530)
There are people who make money with ASMR videos, people making money eating old military rations, etc and posting it on YouTube. I am not saying these are viable career options, but are examples of 'jobs' that seem absurd but exist because of recent technology

Web design, coding, app design, site reliability engineers , debugging, user interface testing, so many new jobs

Re:More Robots, Fewer Jobs: capital vs. labor in production by cr0sh on Monday May 08, 2017 @04:19PM (#14295221)
While I am pretty certain there were analogues of it 40 years ago (1977), the idea of a "lifestyle coach" and similar professions would seem a bit out there back then.
Re:More Robots, Fewer Jobs: capital vs. labor in production by bduerst on Wednesday May 10, 2017 @12:53AM (#14305985)
SEO specialist, Mobile App Developer, Etsy artist, Drop shipper, additive manufacturing engineer, HFT quant, Lyft driver, etc.
Re:More Robots, Fewer Jobs: capital vs. labor in production by s73ver on Monday May 08, 2017 @04:18PM (#14295214)
Except there are going to be far, far fewer of those positions than there are people displaced by automation.
Re:More Robots, Fewer Jobs: capital vs. labor in production by bduerst on Wednesday May 10, 2017 @12:48AM (#14305972)
> the demand for labor is a function of supply
Re:More Robots, Fewer Jobs: capital vs. labor in production by Chathamization on Monday May 08, 2017 @01:05PM (#14293461)
> The problem comes when robots begin to perform these higher order tasks. What happens to individuals when they have no "higher" place to move into?

That hasn't happened though. We have no indication that such a question is more relevant now than it was 200 years ago. And it's worth pointing out that we're currently in a period of fairly low productivity growth.

Re:More Robots, Fewer Jobs: capital vs. labor in production by drzaiusapelord on Monday May 08, 2017 @01:35PM (#14293735)
>The printing press put scribes out of work, but then the entire publishing industry exploded.

And now the publishing industry is dying because of the web. Its not remotely a 1 to 1 transition and automation certainly is to blame for that. Sounds like your example was just a couple hundred years too early. Back in the old days you literally had a factory running to print papers everyday, two usually, with an evening edition. Editing layouts took several experienced people which now can be done by a bored intern with a copy of Adobe CS. Teams of copy editors had to read and re-read copy to make sure it makes sense, now spell and grammar check do that.

Your Detroit example isn't good either. New factories require less human assistance. Ford's new plants in Tijuana will require less human work per car for example.

The numbers simply don't add up and every new form of automation doesn't lead to an explosion of jobs. Worse, in the few cases it does, it creates local unemployment. Its unrealistic to expect a 20 year travel agent veteran to become a full stack developer for Expedia. And if she did, how many job openings are there for that? In the past we needed one travel agent for every 1,000 people. A handful of devs can put up a travel service that serves millions.

Also the article linked makes some good points,but ignores a lot of job growth has been in retail or part-time jobs[1]. While technically employed, these people are far from the jobs of old and cannot be the primary breadwinners in their household. Not to mention, that we've never had automation on this level before so historical data might be meaningless. Sure we can talk about horses turning into cars, but people still needed to drive and own those cars. We may be only a few years away from a self-driving car service that makes both those things obsolete and the jobs it produces will be nowhere near what we have today.

[1] In other words, the automation downturn is already here but some haven't recognized it yet. People with college degrees working at Footlocker or greeting at Walmart know its happening.

Re:More Robots, Fewer Jobs: capital vs. labor in production by H1Supreme on Monday May 08, 2017 @03:32PM (#14294811)
Lots of truth in this post. The majority of people I know (30's age bracket) are working jobs that are not in the field they have a degree in. Some of them went back to school, and still have shitty retail jobs or part-time work. That, or they travel hundreds of miles during the week to work on location somewhere.

I was lucky to get into programming (as a hobby at first), but as we all know, it's not for everyone. Especially, if you only get into it because you think it's lucrative.

My Dad fell ass backwards into a blue-collar factory job when he was 18, and supported a wife (who worked part time sometimes) and 2 kids. This was literally par for the course in the 60's-80's. That's upper middle class these days, at minimum.

Re:More Robots, Fewer Jobs: capital vs. labor in production by s73ver on Monday May 08, 2017 @04:19PM (#14295215)
So what industry is going to explode when robotic manufacturing, or driverless vehicles become common? What industry is going to take in all the truck drivers and assembly workers?