You're absolutely right. It won't be PRC tanks rolling against NATO. It will be proxy warfare, in the manner of the Great Game or the Cold War. Even today, Chinese companies sell a great deal of weaponry to the Taliban and other insurgent groups.

We are looking at a repeat of the US-Soviet conflict, replayed in Central Asia, with stakes unimaginably high.

The mineral deposits are significant in that they are a major catalyst, forcing events to happen over years rather than decades. The minerals will pull in corporations controlled directly by the Chinese state, and our own psuedo-public conglomerates such as Betchel and Halliburton. As a rule, soldiers follow merchants. It is a potentially dangerous situation that is strongly foreshadowed by historical precedent.

There is a reason nearly all Eurasian empires of the past two millennia have found themselves fighting in the Afghan hills.

Afghanistan is not some simple backwater. It sits astride the only viable land passes between Europe, China, and India. It is the natural crossroads of the world, the only unsecured military path into the Punjab, and a major potential trade route between three billion consumers.

Afghanistan is unique because it could be phenomenally wealthy, but as a result, it is simply too dangerous for any one power to allow a rival to control it. The Brits invaded to keep it away from the Russians. The United States sponsered insurgents to keep it away from the Soviets.

The most stable outcome is for no one to possess it, and for the country to remain in ruin. But from time to time, a Great Power tries to seize the area, drawing a response from the other powers. That time may be again be approaching.