Re:The Future of Energy Isn't Fossil Fuels or Renewables, It...
by kristopolous on Tuesday May 02, 2017 @02:05PM
(#14248885)
Totally agree. Unless there's a super-easy way to retrofit very few will bother. However, let's think 100 years out.
By this time, the cost threshold of things in the class of solar is perhaps a few hundred dollar fixed cost for your needs. Just like you don't need to be an energy-saving enthusiast to get a non-crt computer screen today, low-cost commodity energy generation hardware will dominate the marketplace and essentially be the only consumer-facing option.
If you are an "I don't care" consumer like most are, the cheapest and best business model would be to have either someone come by and put the thing in or to franchise it out like 7/11 so every neighborhood gets their own low-cost plant.
Either way, large power-generation infrastructure projects are likely to give way to an even larger consumer-facing power-generator infrastructure.
In the shorter term someone somewhere (maybe reading these words right now) will come along and make a version of solar or solar-equivalent tech a sexy luxury toy for wealthy people to show everyone how rich they are. It will get hyped-to-hell-and-back. Big players will slap their head and say "oh darn that was obvious" and quickly move in to snatch the market and there will be a wild ride for all the VC groups involved. It'll mint a few 22-year old billionaires from either MIT or Harvard who will be paraded as visionary geniuses for our time. So lovely.
Don't know when, don't know where, but it's coming. (ok, my real guess is geopolitics will destabilize oil prices and create a climate for adoption within the next 3 years - the cost metrics have just started working out in the past 12 months)
By this time, the cost threshold of things in the class of solar is perhaps a few hundred dollar fixed cost for your needs. Just like you don't need to be an energy-saving enthusiast to get a non-crt computer screen today, low-cost commodity energy generation hardware will dominate the marketplace and essentially be the only consumer-facing option.
If you are an "I don't care" consumer like most are, the cheapest and best business model would be to have either someone come by and put the thing in or to franchise it out like 7/11 so every neighborhood gets their own low-cost plant.
Either way, large power-generation infrastructure projects are likely to give way to an even larger consumer-facing power-generator infrastructure.
In the shorter term someone somewhere (maybe reading these words right now) will come along and make a version of solar or solar-equivalent tech a sexy luxury toy for wealthy people to show everyone how rich they are. It will get hyped-to-hell-and-back. Big players will slap their head and say "oh darn that was obvious" and quickly move in to snatch the market and there will be a wild ride for all the VC groups involved. It'll mint a few 22-year old billionaires from either MIT or Harvard who will be paraded as visionary geniuses for our time. So lovely.
Don't know when, don't know where, but it's coming. (ok, my real guess is geopolitics will destabilize oil prices and create a climate for adoption within the next 3 years - the cost metrics have just started working out in the past 12 months)