Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan

Re:Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan by pdelbarba on Tuesday April 25, 2017 @02:15PM (#14196445)

It's an interesting read if you're into the nuts and bolts of modern warfare. The key assumption is that the DPRK actually has any ambition of attacking the ROK though. They'll scream and carry on until they get their sanctions lifted and, in their minds, come out of the whole thing a nuclear power.

Now those running tomorrow's senate briefing on the other hand...

Edit: it's also worth noting that they're playing a somewhat "smart" long game here. They won't likely do much until they're confident that they can convince the world they have ICBM capabilities. At that point, they no longer have to just menace the ROK or Japan but can realistically extort anyone they want.

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Re:Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan by WillyOnWheels on Tuesday April 25, 2017 @02:54PM (#14196832)

I don't think DPRK really wants to nuke anyone. They just look at countries in the last 30 years and look at their options:

Libya: Gave up their WMDs, Libya government gone.

Ukraine: Gave up their nukes, Russia invaded (I admit this is a bit contrived)

Iraq: Didn't have nukes, Iraqi government gone.

Pakistan: Has nukes, is incredibly unstable, still there!

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Re:Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan by pdelbarba on Tuesday April 25, 2017 @02:56PM (#14196860)

That's pretty much my point. Short range nukes = a few countries forced to cooperate. Long range nukes = all countries forced to cooperate.

Edit: interesting comparison with the noted countries BTW.

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Re:Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan by WillyOnWheels on Tuesday April 25, 2017 @03:02PM (#14196918)

There is a Twitter account from a right leaning Westerner(as in he occasionally favors a military solution to NK politics, writes policy papers for a think tank) in Seoul who speaks and reads Korean, reads all of the North Korean press releases, he claims that the NK government is the sanest government around. They want to stay in power. Everything they do, in their mind, furthers this goal. They don't want to be regime-changed! I'll see if I can find his URL again.

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Re:Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan by lettergram on Tuesday April 25, 2017 @03:11PM (#14197011)

You can also look at places like South African. Where the government gave up nukes, transitioned to a different government, and everything was fine (internationally)

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Re:Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan by phil21 on Tuesday April 25, 2017 @04:06PM (#14197488)

So same outcome, just less violent and voluntarily vs military intervention? I don't think that's the outcome the leadership of NK are looking for.

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Re:Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan by vkou on Tuesday April 25, 2017 @09:44PM (#14199861)

The end of apartheid was... Not entirely, but mostly orthogonal to South Africa's nuclear ambitions.

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