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Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by pdelbarba on Friday April 21, 2017 @03:30PM (#14168627)
I'm calling bullshit. See my calculations in the other thread. ~1600lbs of batteries to hit their specs with current tech and that's VERY generous. Likely closer to 2k. Lipo capacity going up at 5% a year so 2025 isn't happening unless new battery tech is announced and commercialized in the next 8 years.

Also, steering appears to be entirely based on differential thrust. Power loss = uncontrolled descent. Good luck getting that certified...

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by aphextron on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:12PM (#14169028)
That's why this is so frustrating. It seems like everyone is just missing the point. Flying cars are not a mechanical design problem. We have the tools, engines, designs, etc. all nailed down at this point. Any aerospace engineering grad could design a flying car tomorrow if the energy source existed in such a density that would make it feasible. It is fundamentally an energy problem, not a mechanical one. Maneuvering around that fact, and spending time on problems that aren't solving the core issue of battery technology is a massive waste of resources.
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by jacquesm on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:17PM (#14169061)
Yes, and it always has been. From the Moller Sky car to the Lilium here, making the craft is the easy bit (well, apart from the thrust vectoring but with modern computers that's solvable). Getting it to run for more than 2 minutes with a realistic load is the hard part. Those small ducted fans are horribly inefficient by the way, a regular shaped plane with a pusher prop and the wingspan of a glider would have a much better chance achieving the range (but no VTOL).

Too good to be true usually isn't true.

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by pdelbarba on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:19PM (#14169086)
Thank you, my thoughts exactly. We need to be focusing on high density energy storage. An electricity source with a similar or greater specific energy to gasoline would transform transportation to the point of being unrecognizable within a couple years. It would be as much of a singularity as AI, high temp super conductors or low cost graphene. Just putting electric motors in current generation airframes would cut costs ten-fold.
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by aphextron on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:29PM (#14169148)
> Just putting electric motors in current generation airframes would cut costs ten-fold.

Absolutely. I didn't mean to disparage the idea of an electric drivetrain for aircraft in general. Check out Pipistrel (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiADDbeFanU) they're doing some incredible things right now. They have a LiPo powered twin seat LSA trainer in production that gets an hour of flight time at 80 knots and 600lb useful load with hotswap batteries. This is the future of trainers IMO.

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by markvdb on Friday April 21, 2017 @06:27PM (#14169915)
Please use SI units: 150 km/h speed, 300kg useful load.

Thank you for the Pipistrel link!

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by pdelbarba on Friday April 21, 2017 @06:36PM (#14169961)
Aviation units/specifications are unfortunately almost always specified in knots and pounds.
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by nradov on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:51PM (#14169340)
A liquid-hydrocarbon fueled turbogenerator would appear to meet your criteria. You can use synthetic or biofuels if you're worried about the environmental impact. Of course the aircraft will be more efficient if you omit the generator and mechanically couple the turbine to the props.
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by pdelbarba on Friday April 21, 2017 @05:23PM (#14169535)
I talk about this elsewhere in this section. Pipistrel tried this on the Panthera and the system complexity is enormous. The whole advantage of electric propulsion is it's simplicity. Might as well just use the turbine for lift.
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by nradov on Saturday April 22, 2017 @06:01AM (#14171805)
Yes that was exactly my point. Barring major advances in battery technology, if you want to build a powered lift VTOL aircraft safe enough for civilian passengers with useful range and payload then you probably need to use a turbine engine. Batteries just aren't good enough yet.
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by blueprint on Friday April 21, 2017 @05:27PM (#14169562)
Why energy density storage and not wireless power transmission and/or reception?
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by pdelbarba on Friday April 21, 2017 @05:33PM (#14169594)
Sure, it's possible, but it's a much longer way off at the moment. There are all sorts of technical problems that need to be solved in that space for it to be viable. You need to be able to transmit in excess of 100kW through clouds without any dispersal and not set the target on fire. We at least have the groundwork laid for potentially very high capacity batteries (LiAir, LiS, etc).
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by FabHK on Friday April 21, 2017 @11:38PM (#14171001)
I thought a fixed wing or even heli/drone type aircraft for one, two pax could fly with, say, 50 kW?
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by sathackr on Saturday April 22, 2017 @11:17AM (#14172926)
50kw is still an incredible amount of power to transmit wirelessly without cooking the target and anything that may pass between the power transmitter and the target. Go put an egg in your microwave and watch what 1kw does to it.

It would also almost certainly require line of sight and a directional antenna that can track the aircraft. Batteries could be used in the aircraft to at least land safely if there were a loss in power.

But currently we have trouble transmitting 5 watts across the 7mm gap between a wireless charger and a phone. 50kw over a distance of 1-300km is a very long way away.

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by FabHK on Saturday April 22, 2017 @12:05PM (#14173140)
Thanks. (Note that I think the wireless transmission idea is entirely fanciful and can safely be discarded for the foreseeable future. Just got hung up on the 100 kW figure...)
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by sathackr on Saturday April 22, 2017 @12:44PM (#14173338)
It may need 100kw during certain phases of flight --take off and landing for a VTOL craft, or just take-off for a standard aircraft. Cruise power is generally far less than take off/hover power.

If the craft were entirely wirelessly powered, then of course the system would have to be able to transfer 100kw. But the link(if even 50kw were ever feasible) could be designed for a lower power level, and the aircraft could draw from an onboard battery bank for extra power during these phases of flight.

Kind of like how hybrid drive vehicles undersize the internal combustion engine and then draw power from the ICE and the electric system during heavy acceleration.

But we still need to find a reasonable way to wirelessly transmit large amounts of power safely and efficiently.

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by pdelbarba on Sunday April 23, 2017 @02:08PM (#14179438)
100kW is the likely cruise power for that aircraft at 300kmph. It's likely many times that for VTOL
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by sathackr on Sunday April 23, 2017 @06:18PM (#14180729)
Very possibly. I'm by no means an aerospace engineer.

A quick google turned up this[1] which has a top speed of 296km/h with a 120hp(89kw) engine, and it's likely a good bit lighter than the Lilium with a full battery load.

[1] http://www.aircraftspruce.com/catalog/kitspages/nexaer.php

edit: added [1]

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by the_jaded_one on Saturday April 29, 2017 @10:40AM (#14226777)
I'm surprised they didn't include an internal combustion engine in it to charge the battery. That's the solution for the terrafugia tf-x. https://www.terrafugia.com/tf-x/
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by stcredzero on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:40PM (#14169261)
Any aerospace engineering grad could design a flying car tomorrow if the energy source existed in such a density that would make it feasible.

Beamed power?

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by andars on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:47PM (#14169313)
Maybe, but unlikely. Lasers need line of sight and would generally be a bad idea at the power levels required (basically a weapon), and microwave power transmission requires large receiving apertures. Current "wireless charging" technologies are pretty much universally near field.
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by nradov on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:46PM (#14169308)
Impossible for safety reasons in populated areas. And even ignoring safety issues, the conversion efficiency on beamed power is so low as to make it uneconomical.
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by stcredzero on Friday April 21, 2017 @05:09PM (#14169446)
I thought the conversion efficiency for microwaves was 80%.
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by nradov on Friday April 21, 2017 @05:40PM (#14169641)
Maybe in a kitchen microwave oven. You're not accounting for transmission path losses and receiver conversion efficiency.
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by stcredzero on Friday April 21, 2017 @08:04PM (#14170394)
Actually, I think that's a figure including transmission and receiver conversion efficiency, but it doesn't include path losses. That's still quite impressive, though.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/green-tech/solar/japan-d...

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by nradov on Friday April 21, 2017 @09:39PM (#14170689)
That's for short range transmission to a fixed receiver. So not really relevant for powering aircraft.
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by stcredzero on Saturday April 22, 2017 @10:18PM (#14176085)
Such microwave systems have been proposed for solar power satellites. They have useful ranges up to 100's of miles.
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by pdelbarba on Friday April 21, 2017 @05:24PM (#14169547)
How would this work through clouds? The water vapor would in theory block or scatter everything from UV to microwave radiation. Also, I don't want to be near a 1W laser/maser, and if our energy budget is 100kW, you'd need at least a 100,000W laser pointed at your tiny air taxi.
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by jacquesm on Friday April 21, 2017 @06:28PM (#14169923)
That's called target practice.

These guys do it all the time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtxwT6PQIw8

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by joshuahaglund on Friday April 21, 2017 @03:54PM (#14168888)
I'm not a pilot, but the fan pods are flaps, so I think there's some steering there.

Also, it has a full aircraft parachute as a last resort.

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by Jtsummers on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:07PM (#14168990)
https://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/handbooks_manuals/a...

Helicopters, as opposed to this vehicle, have the ability to be controlled even when power is lost. This is a much safer failure mode for personal aircraft then depending on a chute: useless at altitudes high enough to be fatal but low enough to result in a failed chute deployment.

Similarly, winged aircraft can glide, where this one cannot, given enough forward velocity.

This thing will drop like a rock in an incidence of power failure at low altitude and the operator will have no way to control where it hits the ground (for either their safety or the safety of those on the ground).

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by pdelbarba on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:05PM (#14168975)
Air frame parachutes are great at high altitude but under ~500ft (where you're going to have the highest load on your electrical system during landing/takeoff) they do absolutely nothing.

As far as the flaps, they are not sufficient for controlled flight. Increasing the angle of one of them increases both lift and drag on that wing so you have at best a dutch roll/adverse yaw and at worst a flat spin.

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by stcredzero on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:16PM (#14169058)
Lipo capacity going up at 5% a year so 2025 isn't happening unless new battery tech is announced and commercialized in the next 8 years.

What about a small fuel/turbogenerator drop pod for just the takeoff/climb?

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by pdelbarba on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:28PM (#14169144)
Pipistrel was trying to do this (along with a few other companies). At that point, the mechanical complexity is prohibitive along with the insane operating costs. You still need enough batteries to get back on the ground if something fails but you have the added weight of a combustion engine and it's fuel as well.

The whole appeal of electric motors is that they are basically solid state. You don't need to change oil or perform a ton of regular maintenance. Just replace bearings every few years if ever and you're good to go. Gas/jet engines need to be overhauled regularly which contributes a large portion of the operating costs. For instance, a Cessna 172R/SP uses a 180 hp I/O-360 engine that needs to be overhauled (completely disassembled) every 4000 hours at a cost of around $20,000. That's $5 an hour just for the engine replacement assuming no excessive wear or metal flakes in the oil are found.

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by stcredzero on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:37PM (#14169229)
you have the added weight of a combustion engine and it's fuel as well

Note I said drop pod.

The whole appeal of electric motors is that they are basically solid state.

I think beamed power has a lot of potential for electric jets. It's sort of magic. You get to ditch the heavy fuel tanks/batteries, and you still get the benefits of low maintenance costs for electric motors.

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by jacquesm on Friday April 21, 2017 @06:30PM (#14169929)
> It's sort of magic.

It's not sort of magic, it would be actual magic.

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by pdelbarba on Friday April 21, 2017 @05:03PM (#14169417)
Even still, you would need to have the thrust to lift it in addition to your regular operating equipment and some way for it to be recovered (more weight, complexity, operating and upfront cost)

I'll pass on sitting in the tiny plane with a 100kw laser pointed at it.

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by jacquesm on Friday April 21, 2017 @08:07PM (#14170404)
> I'll pass on sitting in the tiny plane with a 100kw laser pointed at it.

Now that's one place where a tinfoil hat might come in really handy.

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by yownie on Friday April 21, 2017 @09:34PM (#14170670)
Perhaps Magnet bearing mounted flywheel as your kinetic energy storage would be better and lighter than battery power?
Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by Robotbeat on Friday April 21, 2017 @04:30PM (#14169166)
Range is helped A LOT by good lift to drag. In fact, range is proportional to lift to drag. A quadcopter cannot get very good range, but add wings, and you all of a sudden can go places.

300km is probably optimistic for this prototype. Wings are pretty short. But with extremely good lift to drag ratio (as seen in gliders, the best of which can get over 70 lift to drag), you could definitely get even 1000km range even with existing battery tech.

Range = (ratio of battery mass used for horizontal flight to total mass) * (lift to drag ratio) * (efficiency of propulsion system) * (specific energy of batteries)/(acceleration due to gravity)

So, if cruise-batteries are 0.5 of the total mass, lift to drag is 50, propulsion system is 0.75 efficient (75%), battery specific energy is 1MJ/kg (or 10^6 m^2/s^2 in alternate units, about 300Wh/kg, as good as very best lab-scale lithium ion batteries... lithium-sulfur is better), and gravity is 10m/s^2 (rounded), you have a range of:

0.5 * 50 * .75 * 1(MJ/kg)/(10m/s^2) = 0.5 * 50 * .75 * 10^6(m^2/s^2)/(10m/s^2) = 1875km.

Of course, 50% useful cruise battery weight is probably optimistic (although not too different from long distance airliners whose take-off mass can be roughly half fuel) and a lot of weight will be needed for the vertical take off and landing motors plus the payload, but it does show you what's possible even with existing battery tech.

I tend to think the prototype they showed probably won't get 300km range. Probably need longer wings for that. But their eventual goal is achievable. By the way, for long range, they're not likely using LiPo but lithium ion, perhaps those ubiquitous 18650 cells that Panasonic makes (of Tesla fame). And greater range is possible, especially as lithium-sulfur batteries start becoming more widely available (to speak nothing of lithium air).

As far as losing power to an engine, well, there are lots of engines. Also, electric motors and batteries are very simple and can be built to have extremely high reliability. The batteries and propulsion system can be built to be totally distributed, in which case there's really no feasible scenario where power is lost (unless control is lost, in which case you'd be screwed in a conventional airplane or helicopter, too). Additionally, a ballistic parachute can be and is used.

I don't think this flight is a breakthrough. A decent team could do the same thing they just did, and lots of people (including at NASA Langley) have been working on the same goal. Teaming a bunch of electric motors capable of tilting is a thing that several groups are pursuing, lots of people have done at smaller scale already, and it's only a matter of time before it's done at a large scale as well.

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by pdelbarba on Friday April 21, 2017 @05:20PM (#14169506)
How do you cancel out the total system mass? I'm not completely following your derivation. Keep in mind with your math that you have to account for the VTOL component of flight too. Also, the ducted fans they're using are not efficient at all in your stated flight regime.

There are other considerations at work here as well. Having a 70l/d ratio means huge wings on something that will be this heavy. Gliders have big wings for their size and they have a very very low gross weight (ASK 21 2 seater at 900kg and a 17m wingspan). On top of just being absolutely massive, having all that wing area can cause problems in other than optimal weather situations. An ultra low wing loading will mean that the craft responds like a kite to any air movement so it would be very uncomfortable for the passengers who just want to get where they're going.

I agree that the chances of power loss are remote, especially compared to the current tech in use, but especially with new designs, you need a way of handling it. The issue isn't so much any individual motor but the batteries and support systems. They'll need a cooling system most likely and any failure will turn the whole thing into a Note 7. Also, sorry about using LiPo as a generic term. LiS batteries will definitely help the situation somewhat.

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by Robotbeat on Friday April 21, 2017 @09:03PM (#14170580)
It's all in that first 0.5 ratio. Basically, that ratio says that if I have a 10 ton aircraft, 5 tons is for the payload, airframe, engines, miscellaneous structure, and takeoff/landing batteries while 5 tons is for the cruise batteries. That 0.5 ratio is probably very optimistic for a real-world vehicle, but not crazily so. Burt Rutan's Voyager and the Virgin Globalflyer got much more ambitious figures, like 0.75 and 0.83, respectively (in this case referring to fuel mass instead of battery mass).

You refer to L/D ratio and lack of wing loading as if it's the same thing but it isn't. High performance gliders are generally ballasted (sometimes about half the weight is ballast) in order to increase the wing loading and increase flight speed. Our aircraft would have a 300km/h cruise speed, and so will similarly have a fairly high wing loading, even if it does need long, high aspect-ratio wings. This is helped by the fact that the sort of high performance lithium-ion batteries that you'd be likely to use (i.e. like Tesla uses) would be a good twice as dense as fuel. This increases your effective wing loading for the same outer mold line, allowing higher speed efficient cruise at the same altitude.

As far as battery and support system being a central failure point:

One interesting thing with electric propulsion is it's fairly easy to split the batteries and subsystems up /as well/ as the motors. So each motor pod could have its own small battery nearby for (possibly emergency) take-off and landing (this could also help reduce cabling mass, especially for the high currents you're likely to need for the vertical takeoff and landing portions). The cruise batteries could remain centralized, since you'll need a lot more of them and mass efficiency will be critical (and you could rely on your very good glide ratio).

Re:Lilium – Electric vertical take-⁠off and landing jet by jacquesm on Friday April 21, 2017 @06:32PM (#14169938)
And intra-pack screening of batteries to avoid cascading failures.