I would also support the opinion that Erdogan used the EU integration process to selectively weaken the kemalist/military grip on Turkey's institutions. While you could point out that the EU were a 'useful idiot', IMHO there was never a realistic chance of Turkey joining the EU. The reasons are multifold, most important ones being the resistance of the EU population in major EU countries such as Germany, France and Poland. In that regard, I think, EU politics were not on an honest basis and just a game.
Those people are obviously not Turkish. The military, by its founding from Ataturk, gives ZERO damns about membership, in fact they were pretty much established to STOP various forms of state 'membership' including religious.
Turnout was 86%. Vote manipulation is very likely, but it wasn't done that blatantly. More blatant was the suppression of the opposition during the campaign.
However, since no one can replay history, no one can be sure that this actually would have happened. Erdogan would still have been himself, with the same corrupt attitude and religiously fanatic mind.
"One cannot be secular and a Muslim."
"If the skies and the ground were to open against us. If floods and volcanoes were to burst, We will not turn from our mission. My reference is Islam."
"Our minarets are our bayonets, Our domes are our helmets, Our mosques are our barracks."
The EU accession project was abandoned long before Syria, when it became clear a lot of EU countries (Germany above all) were not going to allow it for fear of increased migration numbers. Since then, Erdogan dropped any pretense of liking the democratic process and the rule of law, which were supposed to be strengthened as precondition of joining the EU. He used the real issue of corruption in the secular army as an excuse to strengthen his own position.
The kurdish issue is a long-standing problem and Erdogan uses them for classic "pressure management ": whenever he's under threat, he whips out the kurdish enemy to solidify his support. He's done this pretty much continuously since taking power, making a bit of progress on peace efforts to keep up appearances then cracking down whenever he needs a popularity boost. Like black and red terrorist groups in '70s Italy, kurdish groups are likely infiltrated at all levels by authorities.
Erdogan's wobbling on Syria had little to do with alignment with Putin or the US, and more to do with him initially betting on ISIS then backtracking once it became clear US and Russia weren't going to accept it anymore. The Russian plane shot down and subsequent apology was the end of that particular game, nothing to do with long-term alignment. Turkey had already denied their US bases for a number of operations before then.
Erdogan is not a pawn or even a solid ally to this or that front, he just plays his own fascist game.
The first part of your comment denotes a misunderstanding of the situation.
Turkish forces shot down the Russian plane in response to Russia's bombing of the Turkmen (Turkish minority in Syria) rebels. Turkey/US stance in Syria is also divided because the US supports Kurdish groups, just not those aligned with the PKK.
EU membreship is achieved by democracy, checks and ballances, economic stability, not by shooting down Russian planes. EU officials go out of their way to avoid conflict with Russia. Many were for less tougher sanctions than those imposed by the Obama administration.
You are right about Turkey joining the EU being a pipe dream. Turkey's alliances should be with other countries with similar cultures (Turkmenistan, Kazahstan, etc.).
That seems unfounded.
It seems most of your post is your own take, which is fine, but you're posting it as received knowledge.
Sad outcome. Especially with 99% or so voting turnout, and such a close result. 97-99% voting turnout on such a large scale is a classic telltale sign of fabrication balloting, and was standard since at least CCCP, just like in Crimea independence referendum. With such a close result it would mean he was losing 70/30 by vote on a standard 70% turnout, but padding his numbers by 30% with his ballots was sufficient for him to maintain grip and win. Each successive referendum will make him stronger, unleashing his full potential without pesky opposition "provocateurs".