You think that's crazy? They paid Dave Chappelle $60 million for _3 standup specials_.
I believe the next step is having "blockbusters" feature movies, with top notch CGI, a-level actors, maybe some Oscar contenders.
My impression is that low risk, big payoff shows would be optimizing for a local maxima. Big bets like the Will Smith movie might take them to a new maxima. And Netflix is basically a success history about reaching a new maxima one after another since its beginning.
That is probably too expensive unless they release to theaters first.
What they could do is create the missing midrange movie that Hollywood just doesn't make anymore. Hollywood makes huge expensive movies and indie studios make cheap movies. Netflix could make the 40 million dollar style of movie that nobody makes anymore.
In fact, they sort of are, they just do it in a longer form.
That on top of the fact they can use data to minimise the risk must mean it's a realistic option.
Maybe they are planning to release the film in movie theaters later? License it to other subscription services a month or two after they release it on their platform?
As an observer, what still seems odd to me is the low number of shows or movies they are producing with that massive budget - last year "The Get Down" apparently cost $16 million per episode while the entire, huge hit, first season of "Stranger Things" cost $13 million.
I would have thought that would inspire them to look for more of these low budget, low risk, big payoff shows, especially when you run a subscription service - surely a series that people binge over 2 weeks, with the potential for more seasons to keep people subscribing is better for you than a one time film? Nope, $100 Million on a single film this year.