Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic

Re:Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' ... by DavidSJ on Thursday March 23, 2017 @07:10PM (#13945185)

Maybe my math is simplistic, but a half life of 5 years gives a life expectancy of ~7 years (5 years / ln 2).

If 50x current methane levels are released over 100 years, then at steady state you have added 0.5x/year * 7 years, or 3.5x current methane levels, bringing the total to 4.5x.

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Re:Thousands of underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' ... by contravariant on Thursday March 23, 2017 @09:17PM (#13945784)

That's a bit too simplistic for my taste, but I think you're on the right track.

Exponential decay implies that the rate at which methane disappears is equal to the total amount divided by the average lifetime, so with an additional 0.5 / year, you reach a steady state when (total amount / average lifetime) = (0.5 / year), hence when the total amount is 3.5. Assuming we already were in a steady state initially there should be an additional 1/7 / year from natural sources bringing the total to 4.5.

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