Re:U.K. to Trigger Brexit March 29, Starting Two Years of Talks
by jcranmer on Monday March 20, 2017 @09:45AM
(#13914125)
People who accuse the EU of wanting to be a United States of Europe are at least a decade out of date. Political power within the EU ultimately lies in the hands of individual national governments, not the EU structure as a whole (who's Jean-Claude Juncker again?).
After the failed EU constitution and the tribulations of the Lisbon Treaty, there has been absolutely no energy towards attempting any further federalization. Look at the response to the Greek sovereign debt crisis, or the ongoing migrant crisis. I doubt there will be any credible push towards "ever closer union" for at least another decade--and even then, it would still require at least the cooperation of major national governments.
Yes, it's possible for the rest of the EU to gang up on one country if they do a vote "wrongly" (cf., Ireland). However, Britain is one of the largest countries in the EU. If the French or German governments objected to a proposed treaty revision, it would be incapable of passing. And Cameron's "renegotiation" actually did get a similar guarantee in writing to apply to Britain.
It's also worth pointing out that you're asking to leave the EU at this point, which means you should expect to forfeit the benefits of being in the EU and should not expect to receive any more favorable treatment than other countries outside the EU (such as Canada) with respect to things like trade.
After the failed EU constitution and the tribulations of the Lisbon Treaty, there has been absolutely no energy towards attempting any further federalization. Look at the response to the Greek sovereign debt crisis, or the ongoing migrant crisis. I doubt there will be any credible push towards "ever closer union" for at least another decade--and even then, it would still require at least the cooperation of major national governments.
Yes, it's possible for the rest of the EU to gang up on one country if they do a vote "wrongly" (cf., Ireland). However, Britain is one of the largest countries in the EU. If the French or German governments objected to a proposed treaty revision, it would be incapable of passing. And Cameron's "renegotiation" actually did get a similar guarantee in writing to apply to Britain.
It's also worth pointing out that you're asking to leave the EU at this point, which means you should expect to forfeit the benefits of being in the EU and should not expect to receive any more favorable treatment than other countries outside the EU (such as Canada) with respect to things like trade.