The response of abusers to the reduction of everyone's 
    access to medication does not depend on where you 
    stand on the war on drugs; it is, or will be, a matter of fact. 

Sure. But your willingness to WANT this outcome will depend on your stance on the war of drugs. A blanket ban of all opioids with a harsh prison sentence (say, crack-cocaine level) would both decrease opioid addiction, and increase prison population. Your stance on the war of drugs will point to if you think this is a good trade off or not.

    Maybe more evidence is needed, but pseudo-quantitative
    arguments with made-up statistics that support your 
    view on the war on drugs are not evidence.

My view on the war of drugs has little to this argument. However as mentioned above, your feelings on it may influence how you feel about the broader opioid epidemic and how you want to react to it.