As someone who has managed to stay off windows for everything but gamedev (playing games on linux, only devving on windows because I find magical ways to crash the linux UE4 editor), I really think Vulkan is what will do it. Once we have Vulkan, it will be easier to get performance out of games and the underlying DE/WM, and it should simplify dev since we shoulnd't have to worry nearly as much about direct3d vs opengl.

I have been dissapointed at Epic and Valve for not investing a bit more resources into the linux ecosystem, but I think they are just playing a longer game. While a freedom geek like myself will force myself to get used to the sometimes more difficult ecosystem, the genpop needs an excuse to chase the medium... I think gaming is it, and vulkan is the thing that should help linux gaming.

Ryzen and it's low cost will also lower new pc barrier to entry, which should help, boosted along with lots of people wanting to dip into VR and therefore upgrading. More and more reasons for sections to move.

If the CIA/NSA leaks keep up and MS keeps alienting users like they have since Vista/8/10, gnu/linux userbase will continue to rise.

What would really make it though... is a killer AAA game or program that's on linux only. No port for windows, no bad windows gamers, you don't get to play, sorta thing.

As for distros, I just want to make a quick plug for (xfce) Manjaro... normally I distrohop very frequently, but I haven't had such an easy linux experience ever. Really worth trying at least in a VM.

I respectfully disagree. I don't think there's some feature that is enough to dislodge Windows. I think it's going to take something like iOS on the desktop.

By that, I'm not really talking about the touch-based UI (although that's part of it). I'm thinking about the app model. The model used by Windows is too complex (and Linux is even more so).

There are a lot of things Apple got right with iOS, but I'm especially fond of the security measures. Apps are sandboxed, they hide filesystem details, inter-app communication is mediated by the OS, and updating happens mostly transparently. The tight integration between iOS and the hardware for security reasons is also something that should be copied but will be difficult to do.

As a software developer, I couldn't use something like that to do my work, but most of the non-developers in my life could. Microsoft's current approach where they half-ass everything isn't going to work (IMHO). They are in no real danger though, because nothing else is challenging them today.

Potential challengers are around though. Apple is pretty close with the iPad Pro. Valve's Steam box is also on that path.

It would have to be literally unusable.

Quality is not the thing keeping most people away from Linux. It's not even software availability (although that is still relevant). It's PR and forced Windows distribution.