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Re:Valuation Shell Game: the 409A valuation by jeronpaul on Thursday March 09, 2017 @01:11AM (#13827394)
The fact is that nobody can really know with certainty the true valuation of an early-stage company. Even venture investors just come to a negotiated deal and subsequent events often prove them wrong. That said, the definition of true value is probably whatever price is implied by a market deal between a willing seller and buyer both of which have access to all relevant facts and neither of which is under any compulsion to do a deal (so basically a venture capital transaction would qualify). The article correctly points out that valuation firms aren't market participants (i.e., actual buyers) so they are just doing their best to guess at a value--not establishing a value. The article also points to false precision--which most honest valuation folks agree to. They still have to do their best to come up with a defensible valuation but they recognize that it is just an educated guess. Finally the article points to the difference between common and preferred stock prices as if that is a scam. While you can definitely debate how close the two should be relative to each other, it's totally crazy (IMHO) to say that common should have the same value as preferred.
Re:Valuation Shell Game: the 409A valuation by nugget on Thursday March 09, 2017 @02:15AM (#13827661)
On Tuesday I spend a hundred bucks and start a Delaware LLC that has no assets and no business plan - what's the company worth? Most would say $0 or close to $0.

After breakfast on Wednesday I spend a couple hours on an abstract powerpoint deck, make a bunch of phone calls, and by dinner time (based on past successes and personal network) I have $1m in seed funds committed at a $5m pre-money valuation. What's the company worth then?

It's one of the best tax incentives out there, in that successful founders and very early employees usually pay long-term capital gains on near zero-basis stock.