Perl5 took off because for a lot of things it appeared to be the only game in town. Today that isn't the case anywhere. For the web there is a very established PHP (I just tried to make a web store without writing any code and I REALLY didn't want to touch PHP but there are literally no other options) and a very well established Ruby/Rails. For the enterprise you have Java, C# and all the languages that run on their respective VMs.
Perl6 has no killer app (well, I would consider Parrot potentially a killer app, but thankfully that has afaik no perl requirement). Saying "but we can get stuff done fast!" holds no water anymore. So can Ruby, Python, C#, Haskell, etc., etc., etc. It's not a selling point.
EDIT: Forgot to mention, for sys admin perl6 will be competing with, among other things perl5.
The difference is, (AFAICT) Perl 6 also aims to be easy to use for the everyone else. Damian is extremely bright and surely wishes to have (and (I think) has helped design) a language that allows him to do some frightening and epic stuff. Larry is also a very bright guy, and is very humble, and (again, AFAICT) still requires that Perl 6 make easy things easy. "Baby Perl 6" should be easy to pick up and use.
So, the only part of the Lisp vibe I'm sensing is: yes, clever people will use Perl 6 to do clever things. But also, people who just need to get their work done in a straightforward way will be using Perl 6 as well.
My prediction: Perl 6 will have a long and steady increase in use as time goes by. This is because although there's not a tremendous amount of hype, potential users will trickle in and say, "I need to do $x"; and then as usual, Perlers will come out of the woodwork with multiple ways to quickly do $x without much trouble, and bang: you've got one more Perl 6 user.