The Thompson et al paper linked is precisely a probability for pairs of clusters, so needs to be scaled (see comments on article). There's a nice comment in the article by Peter Erwin giving an overview of a list of recent papers:

  Hayashi & White 2006 -- BC is apparently consistent with LCDM.
  Farrar & Rosen 2007 -- BC is apparently not consistent with LCDM.
  Nusser 2008 -- BC possibly not consistent with LCDM.
  Angus & McGaugh 2008 -- BC is more consistent with MOND cosmology than LCDM.
  Llinares et al. 2009 -- BC is more consistent with MOND cosmology than LCDM.
  Lee & Komatsu 2010 -- BC is apparently not consistent with LCDM.
  Forero-Romano et al. 2010 -- BC is apparently consistent with LCDM.
  Thompson & Nagamine 2012 -- BC is apparently not consistent with LCDM.
  Watson et al. 2014 -- BC is apparently consistent with LCDM.
  Krajlic & Sarkar 2015 -- BC is apparently consistent with LCDM.
  Bouillot et al. 2015 -- BC is apparently consistent with LCDM.
  Thompson et al. 2015 -- BC is apparently consistent with LCDM.

LCDM is Lambda CDM, the prevailing cosmological model. BC = Bullet Cluster. The blog post is very selective in the papers discussed.