I agree with you on the first points. We don't know how soon computers will match us in intelligence and they're still underpowered but 2 things might accelerate their rise: 1. GPU computing. Much more similar to the brain. 2. IoT - it might bring computers the senses humans have today. A self-correcting ML system with access to broad sensors, huge computing resources and the Internet is starting to look surprisingly similar to our abilities and data access.