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Re:What's Really Warming the World? by Udik on Sunday February 26, 2017 @02:09PM (#13739090)
Not with the accuracy and resolution of the data we have since last century. When you compare the current time series with the reconstructed ones from the past, you're comparing a day by day thermometric reading with the assembled averages of multiple, very noisy and extremely low frequency samples. Very tricky to say from those what might have been the actual speed of change in the past.
Re:What's Really Warming the World? by euyyn on Sunday February 26, 2017 @02:14PM (#13739123)
Tricky for sure, as in it requires scientists to understand statistics and probability. Thankfully, many do, and many university departments hire mathematicians to keep the quality there high.
Re:What's Really Warming the World? by mememachine on Sunday February 26, 2017 @02:20PM (#13739168)
With the quality of data we have from the past your reconstruction can only be so accurate. Its not a stretch to say our reconstructions cant really predict the short term spikes were trying to compare against.