News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Facts about migration and crime in Sweden by SolaceQuantum on Friday February 24, 2017 @08:32AM (#13723447)
So now I'm confused. Does a low approval rate matter, is it "bad data"? What defines "bad data"? Say the statistics running around this thread specifically about crime in countries, broken down by race and type or crime, or broken down further by region within counties too. How does one determine "good data" vs "bad data" here?
Re:Facts about migration and crime in Sweden by ra1n85 on Friday February 24, 2017 @08:37AM (#13723491)
Sorry you're confused. Point was pretty clear: US polling data was not found to correlate strongly with reality, so treat it with some suspicion. Can't really break it down further than that.
Re:Facts about migration and crime in Sweden by SolaceQuantum on Friday February 24, 2017 @09:12AM (#13723776)
The polling data was that it is possible for it to occur, although unlikely. It occurred. I'm not sure where the data said otherwise, or where it isn't correlating with reality.
Re:Facts about migration and crime in Sweden by tomlock on Friday February 24, 2017 @08:45AM (#13723553)
So saying an event has a 10% chance of happening, and then it happening after one roll of the dice, is enough reason to doubt the data?
Re:Facts about migration and crime in Sweden by ra1n85 on Friday February 24, 2017 @08:53AM (#13723615)
Nope.

Polling was incapable of accurately determining what the odds really were. If that die was six-side, but I told you there was a consistent 10% chance of rolling a 1, then I'm providing you with a bad probability. The media and pollsters did the same (for whatever reason).

Re:Facts about migration and crime in Sweden by tomlock on Friday February 24, 2017 @09:02AM (#13723692)
>Polling was incapable of accurately determining what the odds really were.

Nope.

If polling couldn't determine what the odds really were, the probabilities, which showed it was well within the realm of possibility that trump would win, aren't evidence the polls were out of alignment with reality.

Re:Facts about migration and crime in Sweden by ra1n85 on Friday February 24, 2017 @09:22AM (#13723844)
Yes :)

Semantics at this point. I'll rephrase your comment with consistent terms:

If polling couldn't determine what the odds really were, the odds, which showed it was well within the realm of possibility that trump would win, aren't evidence the polls were out of alignment with reality.

The possibility of Trump winning does not exonerate the accuracy of the odds presented by polls. The odds were not correct, and the polling data was flawed.

Re:Facts about migration and crime in Sweden by tomlock on Friday February 24, 2017 @09:28AM (#13723883)
>The possibility of Trump winning does not exonerate the accuracy of the odds presented by polls. The odds were not correct, and the polling data was flawed.

If there are 10% odds of something happening and it happens after one event, that's absolutely not a reason to say the data points that generated the odds are flawed.

That is the reason you presented.

Re:Facts about migration and crime in Sweden by ra1n85 on Friday February 24, 2017 @01:43PM (#13726368)
It's not.

I'll clarify, to help.

The reason not to trust polling data presented today is that the probabilities presented in the past were not accurate.

Re:Facts about migration and crime in Sweden by tomlock on Friday February 24, 2017 @05:48PM (#13728660)
Based on what data?
Re:Facts about migration and crime in Sweden by Chathamization on Friday February 24, 2017 @09:12AM (#13723775)
Clinton ended up with a 2.1% victory; the RCP polling average before the election was 3.2% in favor of Clinton. So a 1.1% difference, which isn't huge. Some of that might be explained by the Comey announcement as well.