[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_and_negative_predicti...
[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2540558/pdf/bmj...
Seems like they're getting pretty close. Air traffic and medicine are not the same field, I wouldn't expect the probabilities and risks to be the same.
> The study found that nearly 2 in 10 controllers had committed significant errors in the previous year — such as bringing planes too close together — and over half attributed the errors to fatigue. A third of controllers said they perceived fatigue to be a "high" or "extreme" safety risk. Greater than 6 in 10 controllers indicated that in the previous year they had fallen asleep or experienced a lapse of attention while driving to or from midnight shifts, which typically begin about 10 p.m. and end around 6 a.m.
Chronic Lyme is very controversial and likely not the true etiology
I think this part of the article is what the big problem is:
“Eighty percent of doctors don’t think probabilities apply to their patients,”
I've recently gone through 4 years of medical treatment, and it's still ongoing. Only to find out this week that I have Lyme disease. Given that the chances of getting Lyme where I live is relatively small, it was overlooked for many years. I even asked doctors to test for it, but they refused. Meaning I'm a direct example of doctors not considering non-regular cases. It cost me over $20,000 out of pocket. Not to mention the other things it cost me.
I don't know if its a form of arrogance or how they are trained or a combination of both. But can be life-destroying for patients to say the least. The leading cause of death in Lyme patients is suicide.
[1] http://www.businessinsider.com/air-traffic-controllers-are-d...