Exactly. They've made mistakes, and can recover from them.

The other hasn't had that chance.

Thus, try the first, as it is better tested in the world.

That's very different, though. I trust the company/organization that had to fire an employee for a horrible mistake. They are going to be very careful with who they hire or let near the code in the future, and had much more to lose than a single person.

But I don't trust the employee that was shown forgiveness for a horrible mistake. Some might learn to not repeat what they had done, while others learn that they can get away with things through the magical power of phrasing the situation in a positive light. And some might be mistake-makes-for-life. Not all people come out the other side stronger.