I'll go against the grain here, and say that Vagrant + Ansible (or your favorite config management tool) will be easier to handle. It's well understood, simple, and you can try out any config changes in your local Vagrant environment before running the same changes on production.

At least in my mind, it's much more simple to say "OK, I installed these packages, let me add that to Ansible" than it is to get a production-ready Docker setup going.