I think the question that needs asking is if the geeks would drive the exodus of non-geeks.
Geeks may have driven the adoption by introducing their friends to FB, would they have the same capabilities of driving their friends away from FB?
I don't think so. They would need to give their friends an alternative which is better.
This is where Diaspora comes in. Getting geeks to set-up the hubs for them and invite all their friends. The non-geeks don't have to worry about the privacy, and server related stuff, but geeks who like that stuff actually get into it.
Can geeks drive a product exodus? Yes, but making people give up a bad habit is a lot more difficult than convincing them to adopt the next cool tech. Case in point: Windows.
bingo. Facebook is a habit and becoming the start page for millions of people.
Re:Dear Mark Zuckerberg
by MikeCapone on Thursday May 13, 2010 @06:09PM
(#1345879)
I don't doubt that it can happen this way. I was mostly asking to know where we are in this process; is this still just a geek phenomenon, or are "regular people" (whatever that means) starting to get on board too?
Even if they aren't right now, how many non-geeks get their information on stuff like this to a certain degree from that token geek friend (aka their "tech support" or the like)? After all if you hear from someone you trust that you feel is "more in the know" about something than you feel you could ever hope to be, and their opinion can shape it.
More specifically, I would point to college-age geeks who influence their peers, who in turn exert the influence of seniority on their younger siblings, and of youth on their superiors as they enter the workforce.
If you piss off that same crowd, sooner or later the ripple will be felt. Depending on the order of magnitude, it could very well turn into a tidal wave as it gains speed. Makes you wonder if hockey stick inversion is possible. I think so, but I also think Facebook is smart enough to avoid it. Regardless of this privacy issue, it's still a phenomenal product.