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Re:The New Gold Rush? Wall Street Wants Your Data by AznHisoka on Friday January 20, 2017 @08:23PM (#13448262)
Also just plain dumb luck. stocks dont trade based on logic like revenue growth so if Trump tweets something negative about Starbucks and the stock goes down, but your data suggested Starbucks sales went up 300% last month, you are in tough luck.

this is also probably why your data is worth much much less than you think. there are very few things that correlate very strongly to stock performance. predicting human emotion is probably more important than predicting revenue growth or number of people who went inside a Starbucks last month.

Re:The New Gold Rush? Wall Street Wants Your Data by laingc on Saturday January 21, 2017 @03:17AM (#13449358)
If your data suggest that the stock is trading at a discount due to irrationality, then you have a perfect opportunity to buy lots of an underpriced stock.
Re:The New Gold Rush? Wall Street Wants Your Data by aangjie on Saturday January 21, 2017 @04:42AM (#13449516)
I think the point OP was trying to make is that, that irrationality may not be easy to capture with automated systems, therefore the value of data is limited by your trading system/algorithm's ability to detect/predict irrational human behaviour. Or atleast that's what I read of it.
Re:The New Gold Rush? Wall Street Wants Your Data by dsacco on Saturday January 21, 2017 @08:55AM (#13450036)
Yes, the grandparent comment makes a good point. You can have plenty of solid data and still make a losing trade.

But, given enough data-informed trades that would otherwise be proditable, the law of large numbers suggests that an overall strategy will still be sound. You can afford to have the market be irrational here and there if you really are correctly forecasting earnings in advance most of the time.

Re:The New Gold Rush? Wall Street Wants Your Data by osullivj on Saturday January 21, 2017 @04:44AM (#13449521)
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Keynes.
Re:The New Gold Rush? Wall Street Wants Your Data by dsacco on Saturday January 21, 2017 @09:01AM (#13450046)
"Trump tweets a company name and the stock price decreases" is a signal. If you think about trading strategies as collections of consistent signals you can execute on, rather than assumptions that require market rationality, it doesn't really matter that a rogue event can cause an unpredictable response. The law of large numbers will generally protect you, given a consistent strategy and enough capital.

As an example, a hedge fund that consumes data capable of accurately forecasting earnings in advance can also diversify by consuming social media data. Matt Levine has written about profitable trading strategies developed with sentiment analysis on Trump's tweets. Instead of a hedge fund betting on the stock going up and getting blindsided by a random Trump tweet (or other irrational thing), it will use that as a signal if it can.

Re:The New Gold Rush? Wall Street Wants Your Data by wheelerwj on Saturday January 21, 2017 @06:33AM (#13449684)
You don't think ever hedgefund is actively consuming social media data? How do you think the price of these stocks are affected so quickly?