It doesn't have to be that way.

All you need is a bit of advance in robotics, coupled with stronger AI.

Perhaps a proper AGI is not even required for that. Just good enough multipurpose ANI combos.

I don't think several orders of magnitude is really true.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P73REgj-3UE is slower than a modern house, but not that slow. Further, with just hand tools the Amish where known for raising a barn in one day.

I don't think the specific example matters. Obviously, you couldn't build a skyscraper without machinery or fly through the air in a metal tube. I'll grant that the US middle class is only 2 orders of magnitude above subsistence (~$2 / day) living.

Did they build those hand tools by hand? Honest question.

Some do this, but (most?) Amish can definitely buy industrially-produced tools. Some even use (non-electric) power tools: http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/02/22/172626089/insid...

They're amish they build everything by hand

Amish restrictions on technologies aren't absolute. They can buy things from "English" companies. Some of them even use mobile phones.[0]

[0] http://amishamerica.com/do-amish-use-telephones/

As in, they won't buy a hammer from the town down the road? Instead they'll cast the metal head, and chop the wood for the handle? Mine their own metal ore? It can't go all the way through.

This is a discussion about closing chapters isn't it? Are we merely disputing the date on which a billion power screwdrivers can direct themselves and then Instagram pics of their accomplishments? I give it 50-150 years.

No. We're (or I, at least, am) debating whether the concept of 'new job' continues to exist.