Re:Being Unpredictable Is a Bad Strategy
by orderlyoctopus on Thursday January 05, 2017 @07:43PM
(#13332900)
I always liked orthodox and unorthodox. I think there are lessons when Sun Tzu discusses cheng/chi that are somewhat orthogonal to the OODA loop, but I see the stated interpretation by porpoisemonkey as a "subset". Lulling your opponent into complacence with the obvious and baiting him into a lethal trap absolutely fits the definition of destroying their perception of reality, but isn't the only way.
Your opponent becoming so paralyzed by the fear of not knowing what you will do next and thus doing nothing also fits the OODA loop in a completely different way, but isn't really cheng/chi. This is also touched on in Art of War, so it's not like they are conflicting ideas.
I've heard cheng and chi translated in other ways, like "ordinary" vs. "extraordinary", "direct" vs. "indirect," so maybe "unpredictable" doesn't really apply here. I read it as being more about conflict within an ever-changing environment. If the world is constantly falling out of order, the advantage doesn't go to the one with the most consistently rational strategy, but the one who responds to change the fastest. So instead of making your opponent confused about your strategy, the goal is to degrade his perception to make him unable to keep up with reality itself. This is all very theoretical and abstract though.