Re:The threat of technological unemployment
by barrkel on Tuesday December 27, 2016 @03:11PM
(#13265832)
Some trends are more reliable than others.
The key trend we're concerned about here is technology increasing productivity. That's a long-term trend (you can go back to the wheel, writing etc. if you want to stay in the domain of humans) that has accelerated over time, and hasn't shown any sign of letting up.
Output increases because people are freed up; when what they used to do is more efficiently done with technology, they can apply themselves to something else.
What's the end of that trend?
For my part, I can think of only three ends.
A) We stop creating new technology. The trend of development simply ends. We learn nothing more that can be used to increase efficiency. We know everything there is to know that can be applied to production. Seems unlikely and is contrary to the history of life on the planet.
B) We invent technology that replaces people with low ability - not low skills, but low ability, so that they can never be productive - completely. This is part of what we're concerned with in this article.
C) We start modifying people to increase their abilities to keep pace with what our technology is able to do. Seems dystopian.
Another way to put it is that technology can do an increasing proportion of what a person can do on their own. It's a trend line that has increased throughout history. There are only three extrapolations: the trend line stops short of 100% (case A), the trend line goes past 100% (case B), or our own capability starts growing at least as fast as technology (case C).
The key trend we're concerned about here is technology increasing productivity. That's a long-term trend (you can go back to the wheel, writing etc. if you want to stay in the domain of humans) that has accelerated over time, and hasn't shown any sign of letting up.
Output increases because people are freed up; when what they used to do is more efficiently done with technology, they can apply themselves to something else.
What's the end of that trend?
For my part, I can think of only three ends.
A) We stop creating new technology. The trend of development simply ends. We learn nothing more that can be used to increase efficiency. We know everything there is to know that can be applied to production. Seems unlikely and is contrary to the history of life on the planet.
B) We invent technology that replaces people with low ability - not low skills, but low ability, so that they can never be productive - completely. This is part of what we're concerned with in this article.
C) We start modifying people to increase their abilities to keep pace with what our technology is able to do. Seems dystopian.
Another way to put it is that technology can do an increasing proportion of what a person can do on their own. It's a trend line that has increased throughout history. There are only three extrapolations: the trend line stops short of 100% (case A), the trend line goes past 100% (case B), or our own capability starts growing at least as fast as technology (case C).