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Re:Confronting the Credibility Gap for Crewed Exploration of... by semi-extrinsic on Wednesday December 21, 2016 @06:58AM (#13228440)
Radiation, as you mention, is a very big problem which is independent of destination.

Human psychology is another, perhaps even bigger problem, also independent of destination. We've had various experiments with prolonged isolation, but none where the subjects know that they're never coming back to Earth. I'd say psychology has a >50% chance of wrecking the first manned missions to other planets/moons, unless we send huge ships with hundreds of people.

In the Red Mars trilogy by Kim Stanley Robinson, the author has come to the very astute observation that

a) no perfectly rational, mentally healthy human would volunteer for such a mission

b) there will necessarily be extensive psychological screening to ensure we only send rational people

thus c) the people who will be selected are likely to be non-rational actors very good at concealing their non-rationality from psychologists. Also known as people with psychopathic tendencies.

Re:Confronting the Credibility Gap for Crewed Exploration of... by LeifCarrotson on Wednesday December 21, 2016 @08:57AM (#13229089)
> no perfectly rational, mentally healthy human would volunteer for such a mission

That depends entirely on what they value. If they value their own safety, comfort, and health, then it wouldn't be rational for them. But if they value the advancement of future humans, honor, fame, legacy, scientific discovery, adventure, and so on (which may seem to be irrational things to value for someone in the first group) then it would be rational.

There are some people who will be excited about the fictitious ad from Earnest Shackelton "Men wanted for hazardous journey, small wages, and bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger, safe return doubtful, honor and recognition in case of success."

Re:Confronting the Credibility Gap for Crewed Exploration of... by coldtea on Wednesday December 21, 2016 @07:16AM (#13228509)
>Human psychology is another, perhaps even bigger problem, also independent of destination. We've had various experiments with prolonged isolation, but none where the subjects know that they're never coming back to Earth.

Who said they're never coming back to Earth?

>no perfectly rational, mentally healthy human would volunteer for such a mission

That's an easy problem to solve, as there are no "perfectly rational" and/or absolutely "mentally healthy humans", and have never been anyway.

And people can still be quite rational and mentally healthy and yet cherish the possibility to take such a mission, even if there's a possibility to die, etc.

In fact, it's needs no more troubled people than those that go to the army and are OK to be sent to war, or people that dive and explore the oceans, etc etc.

Re:Confronting the Credibility Gap for Crewed Exploration of... by semi-extrinsic on Wednesday December 21, 2016 @08:30AM (#13228893)
How are they going to come back? All realistic plans I've seen are for one-way trips.

The thought of dying isn't the inherently problematic part, but rather the extreme isolation. People who go to war are there for only some months and have plans for going home, back to friends and family. People who dive and explore the oceans are isolated for a few days at worst; perhaps months in a nuclear sub, but there you have already a pretty large crew around you. Compared to decades spent isolated with a handful of people, and no return ticket to the rest of humanity, those are nothing.

Re:Confronting the Credibility Gap for Crewed Exploration of... by coldtea on Wednesday December 21, 2016 @08:48AM (#13229011)
>How are they going to come back? All realistic plans I've seen are for one-way trips.

Huh?

"The first crewed Mars mission would be expected to have approximately 12 people, with the primary goal to "build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system" as well as a" rudimentary base." In the event of an emergency, the spaceship would be able to return to Earth without having to wait a full 26 months for the next synodic period."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interplanetary_Transport_Syste...

Re:Confronting the Credibility Gap for Crewed Exploration of... by chandmer on Wednesday December 21, 2016 @11:26AM (#13230306)
Yep. The spaceship has to come back at the very least.
Re:Confronting the Credibility Gap for Crewed Exploration of... by namlem on Wednesday December 21, 2016 @01:56PM (#13231619)
What are you talking about? Both NASA's and Musk's plans involve return trips.
Re:Confronting the Credibility Gap for Crewed Exploration of... by semi-extrinsic on Wednesday December 21, 2016 @02:33PM (#13231928)
Wow, that is so hard I didn't think it was being seriously considered. They're going to send a Mars surface-to-orbit launcher as payload in one piece, without fuel, and then produce >30 tons of rocket fuel on Mars? My hat's off to them.
Re:Confronting the Credibility Gap for Crewed Exploration of... by namlem on Thursday December 22, 2016 @01:05PM (#13239065)
Musk hasn't discussed the exact details of his plan, but it seems like the unmanned missions in 2018, 2020, 2022, and possibly 2024 (if there's no manned mission that year) are meant to establish a rudimentary fuel production infrastructure and start producing fuel in anticipation of a manned mission.

NASA, I believe, is currently trying to solve the problem with more efficient engines for interplanetary travel. Ion drives seem to be the preferred method, but there is still some research going on in nuclear thermal rockets.

Re:Confronting the Credibility Gap for Crewed Exploration of... by Jeema101 on Wednesday December 21, 2016 @10:00AM (#13229588)
Exactly. Who is going to want to live underground in a freezing wasteland for the rest of their lives after the initial novelty of 'being on Mars' wears off? Nobody even does that here on Earth, so why would they want to do it on Mars?

Floating around in aerostats on the cloud tops of Venus where it's roughly room temperature at 1 atm on the other hand... or living on the Moon where you can at least communicate with Earth in roughly real-time and are only 3 days away...