Re:GitHub Is Doing Much Better Than Bloomberg Thinks
by peterbonney on Tuesday December 20, 2016 @11:31AM
(#13221310)
Yes, I agree - if the existing sales staff can increase the ARR by another $50M (which is plausible given the prior increase of $50M) while holding all other costs fixed then they will reach profitability.
My point is that "holding all other costs fixed" usually turns out to be a heroic assumption. More staff is needed to support the larger customer base, marginal sales become harder (i.e. more expensive), etc. Plus, as these revenue figures grow, a fixed churn rate becomes more expensive in absolutely dollars. So customer retention becomes more important, which means more sales resources, which means more money. And so on. And in the meantime competitors are cutting prices, so "fixed" revenues turn out to be not so fixed after all, even before factoring in churn.
Don't get me wrong - I'm not predicting that GitHub will fail. I just think the slog will be harder than this meta-analysis of Bloomberg's analysis suggests.
My point is that "holding all other costs fixed" usually turns out to be a heroic assumption. More staff is needed to support the larger customer base, marginal sales become harder (i.e. more expensive), etc. Plus, as these revenue figures grow, a fixed churn rate becomes more expensive in absolutely dollars. So customer retention becomes more important, which means more sales resources, which means more money. And so on. And in the meantime competitors are cutting prices, so "fixed" revenues turn out to be not so fixed after all, even before factoring in churn.
Don't get me wrong - I'm not predicting that GitHub will fail. I just think the slog will be harder than this meta-analysis of Bloomberg's analysis suggests.