You're equating the standards as either "telling the back they messed up" or "blow the money on strippers and cocaine", but then suggesting the bad luck is only true when one of those standards happen...
This logic doesn't even check out. And even if it did, both would assume your actions are only predicated on factors outside of your control, which I think OP is referring to isn't the case.
You are presented with a beneficial situation. You can make decisions that have various potential consequences. These are easily guessed in rudimentary detail.
"Bad luck" only enters the equation if you have no choice of what to do.
If your position is of the philosophy that there is no free will, then your argument would be better held by just stating that, instead of making up scenarios that aren't compatible.
That is closer to the core human nature for a lot of people. Many people want to live and enjoy life (more than enjoying the good perks of being honest). Playing by the rules is just a mean to an end not a purpose in itself.
There's another way to look at it: The "bad judgment" is only bad if you view the standard as "tell[ing] the bank they messed up". If the standard is to blow all the money on strippers and cocaine, then the bad luck in this situation was that he was presented with the anomaly in the first place.