if you have coffee with the founder, instead of focusing on macro risks, perhaps focus on OD's models for risk, inventory, and cash flow. because they can cherry pick geographies, it's actually easier for them to grow now during a recession than when they're much larger and need more transactions to move the needle.
if you believe the models are sound, then focus on whether you believe the team can adhere to these models, that is whether they can resist the temptation to grow at all costs -- and thus place riskier bets.
we also agree OD could stop short of a marketplace and remain an attractive company. we only diverge on their marketplace ambitions.
however, most believe information confers an advantage in asset speculation. so if machine learning and data can provide someone with faster, more accurate pricing, that someone -- whether OD or another startup -- possesses a competitive advantage in terms of purchasing and selling real estate.
the business models are conceptually similar: buy a product from suppliers (clothing manufacturers for gap, home owners for OD) and hold in inventory until a seller is found.
the key difference, of course, is cost of goods. each product costs OD hundreds of thousands of dollars (and eventually millions) while each gap product only costs a few dollars.
like gap, OD can directly control how much it buys from suppliers while indirectly controlling how much it sells via discounts.
predicting home demand is obviously much more difficult, because both the buying psychology is different and the sheer volume of apparel transactions makes forecasting demand more reliable.
nonetheless, the principles of managing cash flow and inventory risk remain the same. provided OD isn't carrying excessive inventory, the business model can survive downturns in different geographies. (what they can't survive is an environment where homes everywhere perpetually depreciate.)
put another way, if people can earn money in the stock market during a recession, why can't OD do the same for the housing market? OD can treat homes like equities in a stock portfolio where they try to balance losses in one area with gains in another.
in summary, OD's fatal flaw won't be a housing bubble (unless it's global and permanent), the fatal flaws will be the risk, pricing, and inventory models. and until you have insight into those, it's impossible to properly assess OD's prospects.
it's also important to note that inventory risk could decrease over time, as once the pricing and demand models are honed, they could allow third-parties to finance some transactions (e.g., home X has a 80% chance of turning over in 30 days).