Re:Why Peak Oil Will Never Lead To $500/bbl Crude Oil
by nostrademons on Monday May 03, 2010 @05:23PM
(#1316141)
They have the same price constraints that the developed world does. If oil goes up to $500/bbl, we'll see one of three things happen.
1.) They'll substitute more efficient yet more expensive cars for gas guzzlers, as the TCO of a gas guzzler goes up.
2.) Efficient, cheap, yet small cars will start being developed for emerging markets. (This is already happening a bit - consumers in Beijing tend to drive much smaller cars than consumers in Houston.)
3.) They won't buy cars at all.
There's no innate reason beyond price why consumers in developing companies can't buy plug-in hybrids. And if price is the governing factor, they simply won't buy cars as well. Either way, it puts downward pressure on oil demand and hence serves to limit prices.
Those consumers will not be buying plug-in Priuses; and with consumption growing rapidly in the oil exporting countries, once they pass their national production peaks their export rates will decline faster than their own production rates.