I've worked with wp before, not a whole lot though. Just installed 3.0 beta. My approach for sites that I don't expect much traffic/updates, has been to just code a database and CMS. Adding in features if/when the site matures. My underlying motivation for this question is that I find myself searching and reading 2/3 of the time instead of coding. I guess it's just part of the job that I have never experienced before. Quality over quantity.
-Graysen
"I find myself searching and reading 2/3 of the time instead of coding"
That's a fair statement. I do spend a lot of time searching and reading WP documentation. I feel overal I'm still saving a huge amount of time and gettng a much more robust system.
Your site will probably grow in size and scope. Don't underestimate the value of all the plugins & themes available to help save time long term.
Have you looked at WordPress yet? Many of those "features you'll never use" aren't actually in the core. You get them as needed with a plugin. That said, the 3.0 core does include a lot more.
Don't worry too much on what you decide, WP is standards compliant, so it's not too difficult to switch your css, html & content into or out of WordPress if you change your mind.