Re:On Getting Older in Tech
by mysterypie on Friday December 09, 2016 @09:09AM
(#13138795)
That's a great rule of thumb. You should give it a catchy name so people remember it.
When I don't have good insight into whether it's worth my time to learn some new tech, I'm going to try to apply this rule.
This is the Lindy Effect[1].
It reminds me of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument
So that means C looks pretty safe... 44 years. C++ is 33 years.
I usually use statistics. If you select a random point on the lifetime of something. There is a 50% chance, that you are closer to the middle then either start or end. Thus: Always assume you are roughly in the middle of the lifetime. In other words, if some technology is only one year old, assume it is dead in another year.